Weather conditions permit the launch of NASA's Crew-13 mission on October 1, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 55% by 8 Oct 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

55% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-10-08.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 52% — The launch hinges on local cloud and wind constraints holding above marginal limits at Cape Canaveral. The 45th Weather Squadron baseline gives a 55% chance of acceptable weather for the opening attempt. Ascent corridor weather and downrange recovery constraints slightly suppress the nominal pad probability. A favorable morning sea breeze shift away from the pad is the primary factor that would rescue borderline odds.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 52% — Hinges on Oct. 1 Florida weather meeting launch criteria within the countdown window. Official forecast gives 55% favorable odds, so slightly weighted toward go but far from certain. Florida coast launches routinely scrub for weather even with moderate odds, cutting against a strong yes. If backup dates exist within the resolution window, delays wouldn't doom resolution, but question is specifically about Oct. 1.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 55% — The forecast itself is the dominant signal, with no operational issue relevant to a weather-only resolution. NASA’s launch-weather assessment gives favorable conditions a 55% chance for the October 1 launch window. Comparable Florida crew launches often face weather holds, so a near-even forecast is not unusually pessimistic. A forecast upgrade or degradation in the final hours—especially lightning, cumulus, or upper-level winds—would move this most.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 55% — NASA/SpaceX 55% GO weather call for today's Crew-13 window at KSC. The official 24-hour forecast already prices in range winds, clouds, and lightning rules for the Oct 1 NET. Florida October weather-scrub rate historically sits near 40-50%; the given 55% is the case-specific update. A late tropical wave or anvil cloud over the pad after T-4 hours would flip it; nothing else in the pipeline does.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 55% — This is a straight weather call: the stated 55% favorable forecast for the Oct 1 window is the whole answer. NASA's own LSP weather forecast puts favorable conditions at 55%, driven by cumulus and thick-cloud rules at the pad. The only actors are the 45th Weather Squadron and range safety; no hardware or range issue is flagged, so the forecast is the binding constraint. Base rate for Crew Dragon launches is roughly 70-80% on-time, but a 55% forecast sits below that, so I anchor near the forecast rather than the historical rate.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 58% — Crew-13 weather go/no-go hinges on a single launch window; 55% forecast is the best anchor available. NASA's own weather team assessed 55% favorable, which is the most direct signal; historical crewed launch weather scrubs run ~30-40%. Crewed missions have tight launch windows (ISS orbital mechanics), so a weather scrub means a full delay, not a same-day retry. A last-minute front or convective activity over Kennedy Space Center on Oct 1 would flip this to a no; clear skies at T-6 hours would push above 70%.

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