Yara's Sluiskil CCS facility captures at least 800,000 tons of CO2 in its first full year of operations.
Europe's largest carbon capture facility launched in the Netherlands in September 2026 with an official design capacity of 800,000 tons of CO2 per year.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 33%.
They broadly agree, 21 points between GPT at 43% and DeepSeek at 22%.
Nothing is settled until 13 Sept 2029, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
First-year ramp-ups rarely sustain nameplate capacity; 800,000 tons is exactly the design maximum.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202643% -
QwenAlibaba
New CCS plants rarely hit design capacity in year 1; ramp-up typically yields 50-70% of nameplate.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202638% -
GeminiGoogle
Reaching 100% of nameplate design capacity across the very first full operating year is historically rare.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202637% -
GrokxAI
Nameplate 800 kt/y; first-year CCS plants typically ramp below 100% due to teething issues.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202628% -
ClaudeAnthropic
New CCS facilities typically run below nameplate capacity in their first full year
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202625% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
New CCS plants routinely miss nameplate capacity in year one; 800k is the design ceiling, not a base case.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202622%
6 of 6 models answered · 21 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.