A ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through September 30, 2026.
Tensions remain high following recent hostilities. The statement holds true if neither country conducts a qualifying military attack against the other before the end of September.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 77%.
They broadly agree, 24 points between Gemini at 92% and Claude at 68%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 100%, so the models are 23 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
Settled by Polymarket: “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?” resolved YES.
Settled by the exchange The prediction market this came from paid out on this outcome. Real money, with a formal dispute window — the strongest evidence available here.
The market that settled it asked: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
- AI edge
- -23 pts
- Moved this week
- +5 pts
- Since we asked
- +8 pts
- Volume
- $3.3M
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 77% against 100%.
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
A 16-day window makes direct reciprocal strikes between Israel and Iran unlikely despite high tensions.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202692% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Only 16 days left; no formal ceasefire exists, but neither side has struck directly in months.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202688% -
GrokxAI
16-day window; direct IAF/IRGC strikes are rare high-threshold events even amid tension.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202682% -
GPTOpenAI
Only 16 days remain; direct Israel-Iran strikes are costly, though escalation risk remains high.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202671% -
QwenAlibaba
Only 16 days left; both sides have shown restraint since last exchange, but proxy/provocation risk remains.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202671% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Ceasefire has held over a year; but nuclear tensions and Iranian rebuilding raise renewed strike risk
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202668%
6 of 6 models answered · 24 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.