A coastal wave energy pulse raises sea levels by half a foot along Southern California.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 70% by 10 Nov 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

70% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-10.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 82% — Southern California tide gauges frequently register half-foot wave setup and storm surge anomalies during major swell events. A 0.5-foot (15 cm) residual above predicted astronomical tide is routinely breached at gauges like La Jolla during large pulses. Forecast models already indicate a strong swell packet nearing the bight within a month-long resolution window. Only a sudden offshore divergence or swell dispersion keeping coastal wave setup under six inches would prevent resolution.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 68% — Hinges on whether the forecasted swell's wave setup/surge actually pushes measured coastal levels 0.5ft above baseline. Large NPac swells routinely produce 0.3-0.7ft wave setup/surge along SoCal beaches during big events, so 0.5ft is plausible but not guaranteed. Forecast already flags a major wave energy surge, which raises confidence above a generic base rate for such events. Actual resolution depends on tide gauge/buoy data showing sustained 0.5ft anomaly, which could fall short if swell underperforms or timing misaligns with high tide.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 93% — A forecast major wave-energy surge makes a 0.5-foot coastal water-level anomaly highly likely within 30 days. NOAA tide gauges routinely record wave setup and runup-driven water-level departures of this size during strong Pacific swells. Only the arriving storm/swell and a Southern California gauge observation before November 10 are needed; no policy action is involved. Odds would fall sharply if updated buoy and weather models show the swell dissipating or tracking away from the coast.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 68% — Whether the already-forecast large NW swell produces ≥0.5 ft wave setup at SoCal tide gauges. CDIP/NOAA models already show 15–20 ft Hs arriving mid-to-late Oct; typical setup for those heights at La Jolla/Santa Monica is 0.3–0.8 ft. Gauges must record water level ≥ MHHW +0.5 ft during the pulse window; fall swell events of this size occur 2–3×/yr so this sits above base rate. Mind-changer is swell decaying below ~12 ft Hs before landfall, which would keep setup under the 0.5 ft threshold.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — Whether a wave-driven surge pushes a tide gauge 0.5 ft above its predicted baseline somewhere in Southern California before November 10. NOAA tide gauges at La Jolla, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara must record a 0.5 ft residual above astronomical prediction, a threshold rarely hit outside major El Nino or… October-November SoCal wave events typically add 0.2-0.4 ft of setup; reaching 0.5 ft requires a large long-period swell coinciding with high tide and low atmospheric… The one development that would most change my mind is a forecasted strong Santa Ana wind reversal or a tropical storm remnant tracking north, which historically produced…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 72% — Southern California gets multiple 0.5ft+ surge events per winter; a month-long window makes this likely. NOAA tide gauges at La Jolla and Santa Monica regularly log 0.5ft+ above-predicted water levels during winter swellows driven by North Pacific storms or El Niño… The window spans late October through early November, which overlaps the onset of the Southern California winter swell season; even one qualifying event resolves this. A single strong cold front or distant storm generating 8-10ft swell with long periods would suffice, and these occur several times per season on average.

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