◇ GAMING 1 MONTH HORIZON RESOLVES 14 OCT 2026

A copyright, trademark, or trade dress lawsuit is filed regarding White House Arcade by October 5, 2026.

No rights holder had initiated an IP dispute over White House Arcade as of September 5, 2026. This resolves as true if any formal IP-related lawsuit is filed within the 30-day window.

Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 4%.

They broadly agree, 9 points between Grok at 12% and DeepSeek at 3%.

It did not happen. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.

It didn't happen.

Reporting through early-to-mid September 2026 explicitly states no copyright, trademark, or trade dress lawsuit had been filed over White House Arcade; instead there were complaints, public statements of concern from Tetris, and a takedown of the 'Build the Wall' game. No source indicates a lawsuit was filed by the October 5, 2026 deadline.

Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.

  • Claudenot happenedcontradicting evidence
  • GPTnot happenedcontradicting evidence
  • Gemininot happenedabsence of coverage

26 Oct 2026 · 85% mean confidence · dispute this

MODEL BY MODEL

What each one said

  • GrokxAI

    No prior dispute by Sept 5; 3-week window too short for typical IP filing prep.

    x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    12%
  • ClaudeAnthropic

    No dispute exists yet; formal lawsuits within a narrow 30-day window are rare without prior warning

    anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    6%
  • GeminiGoogle

    Most IP disputes start with cease-and-desist letters; filing a lawsuit within 3 weeks is very rare.

    google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 2026
    4%
  • GPTOpenAI

    With no dispute already initiated, a specific IP suit arising in the next 30 days is rare.

    openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 2026
    4%
  • DeepSeekDeepSeek

    30-day window, no dispute yet; obscure game, rights holders rarely sue this fast.

    deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 2026
    3%
  • QwenAlibaba

    No IP dispute as of Sep 5; lawsuits rarely materialize in 30 days without prior signals.

    qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    3%

6 of 6 models answered · 9 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?
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Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.