A Democratic candidate wins the 2028 US presidential election.
Forecasters are assessing long-range party control of the White House. Resolves as yes if the Democratic nominee is elected US president in the November 7, 2028 election based on calls by major news networks.
Across 4 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 53%.
They broadly agree, 9 points between DeepSeek at 58% and GPT at 49%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 65%, so the models are 12 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 7 Nov 2028, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -12 pts
- Moved this week
- 0 pts
- Since we asked
- -2 pts
- Volume
- $1.3M
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 53% against 65%.
What each one said
-
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Incumbent-party fatigue plus Dem midterm momentum; two-term GOP rule historically flips, but 2028 is open-seat.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202658% -
GeminiGoogle
Out-party historically has an edge in open-seat races facing a polarized, term-limited incumbent.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202654% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Open-seat race, historical two-term party fatigue, but too early for precision
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202652% -
GPTOpenAI
Open-seat presidential races are near coin flips; 2026 midterm conditions will materially reset odds.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202649% -
GrokxAIno answer this run x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
-
QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
4 of 6 models answered · 9 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.