A feature film sequel to The Martian is officially announced before 2030.
Ridley Scott's 2015 adaptation was a critical and commercial hit, though Andy Weir wrote no direct book sequel.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 9%.
They broadly agree, 13 points between GPT at 18% and Claude at 5%.
Nothing is settled until 24 Oct 2031, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It depends on Disney/20th formally reviving the IP despite no Weir sequel or currently reported sequel development.
- Major studio films rarely receive first official sequel announcements more than a decade after a self-contained original.
- Disney controls 20th Century Studios, while Scott, Weir, a viable story, and lead talent would need to align before 2030.
- A disclosed Scott/Weir treatment, rights deal, or development listing by 2027 would materially raise the odds.
18% -
GrokxAI
Disney greenlighting a no-book sequel with aging talent in under 4 years.
- Weir never wrote a sequel and has publicly declined; 11 years of silence after a $630M hit is far below the 3-5 year announcement window for comparable studio tentpoles.
- Scott is 89 and Damon 56; neither has signaled interest, and 20th Century (now Disney) has not optioned or developed any follow-up.
- A Damon-driven original script or sudden IP revival would shift odds, but no such talks have surfaced.
12% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
No sequel source material exists, and Scott is 88 with a packed slate; only a Weir-written follow-up would move this.
- Weir has published no Martian sequel and has said he prefers new worlds; without a book, Fox/Disney has no story to greenlight.
- Scott's announced slate through 2028 is entirely other projects, and he turns 91 before the deadline, making him an unlikely shepherd.
- Studios do revive hits a decade later (Blade Runner 2049, Gladiator II), but those had Scott attached and existing IP hooks; this lacks both.
12% -
GeminiGoogle
The story is fundamentally complete and neither the author nor the creative leads have ever shown appetite for continuation.
- Andy Weir has repeatedly stated Mark Watney's arc is finished and has focused exclusively on original IP like Artemis and Project Hail Mary.
- Hollywood base rates for non-franchise prestige survival dramas receiving sequels a decade later are practically zero without source material.
- 20th Century Studios greenlighting an original follow-up would require Matt Damon's buy-in, which remains extraordinarily improbable.
6% -
QwenAlibaba
No source material exists and the story is self-contained; a sequel would need an original screenplay nobody is writing.
- Andy Weir has written no sequel and has moved on to Project Hail Mary and other projects, removing the most natural catalyst.
- Ridley Scott (born 1937) would be 92+ by 2030, making his involvement as director implausible and reducing studio urgency.
- Base rate for sequels to self-contained adaptations with no source material is very low; a Disney greenlight without Weir's involvement would be the surprise needed to…
6% -
ClaudeAnthropic
No book sequel exists and no studio/talent signals point toward a Martian 2 before 2030.
- Andy Weir has written unrelated novels (Artemis, Project Hail Mary) with no Martian sequel announced in a decade.
- Studios rarely greenlight sequels to adaptations without source material, and no director/cast attachment has surfaced.
- A sudden announcement of a sequel novel or original script could change this, but nothing currently signals that.
5%
6 of 6 models answered · 13 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 25 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.