ABC ceases to broadcast the live Academy Awards ceremony on linear television before 2029.
ABC holds the rights to the Oscars telecast through 2028. Resolves yes if the network drops the broadcast or shifts exclusively to streaming before that contract expires.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 8%.
They broadly agree, 14 points between Qwen at 18% and Gemini at 4%.
Nothing is settled until 11 Oct 2029, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
QwenAlibaba
Contract runs through the 2028 ceremony; the question is really whether the March 2029 show stays on ABC linear.
- Disney's upfront ad revenue from the Oscars (~$100M+ per broadcast) and the Academy's desire for broad reach both anchor it to linear through at least one more cycle.
- No major live award show has gone streaming-exclusive as of 2026; the Emmys and Grammys remain on broadcast, making a first-mover jump by early 2029 a low-base-rate…
- A shift would most likely come via a simulcast compromise (ABC + Hulu/Disney+) rather than a full linear exit, which wouldn't resolve yes under the stated criteria.
18% -
GrokxAI
ABC will not abandon remaining contracted Oscars telecasts on linear TV.
- Disney/ABC still holds exclusive linear rights through the 2028 ceremony and has no incentive to forfeit them early.
- Major-event mid-contract drops are rare; even declining Oscars ratings remain among the year’s largest ad inventories.
- Only a sudden Disney+ exclusive pivot or force-majeure cancellation would flip this, neither of which is signaled.
12% -
GPTOpenAI
Disney’s binding ABC rights deal through the 2028 ceremony makes an early linear-TV exit very unlikely.
- ABC must voluntarily alter or abandon a deal reportedly extending through 2028; no such shift has been announced.
- Major awards shows have added streaming simulcasts, but exclusive streaming before a rights term ends is rare.
- A Disney-AMPAS renegotiation prompted by collapsing linear reach would materially raise the chance.
9% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
ABC's contract runs through 2028, so this only happens if Disney breaks or reworks a deal it just extended.
- Disney renewed Oscars rights in 2023 through 2028, and the 2026 ceremony drew roughly 18-19M viewers, still among TV's biggest non-sports nights.
- ABC/Disney has no incentive to abandon linear while the Academy needs broadcast reach; any shift would be a simulcast, not a cessation.
- Precedent: the Oscars have aired on ABC since 1976 and survived the 2021 ratings collapse to 9.85M without leaving broadcast.
6% -
GeminiGoogle
Contractual commitments and massive ad revenues keep the Oscars on ABC's linear broadcast through the 2028 contract end.
- ABC holds exclusive linear rights through 2028, and breaking that contract early would trigger severe legal and financial penalties.
- The Oscars remains one of linear TV's few remaining top-tier live ad draws, making an exclusive shift to Disney+ counterproductive.
- A catastrophic ratings collapse below 5 million viewers or sudden network bankruptcy would be required to force an early breach.
4% -
ClaudeAnthropic
ABC's Oscar contract runs through 2028 and switching to streaming-only mid-deal is highly unlikely.
- Disney/ABC signed a long-term extension through 2028, giving strong contractual incentive to keep broadcasting as agreed.
- Historically networks honor major sports/award broadcast contracts fully rather than breaking them early for streaming shifts.
- Only a dramatic change like early contract renegotiation or Disney restructuring ABC's linear business would change this, which isn't currently signaled.
4%
6 of 6 models answered · 14 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 12 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.