A global military conflict involving direct warfare between the United States and either China or Russia begins before 2035.

• G
  GPTOpenAI

  The key hinge is whether a Taiwan or NATO crisis crosses into sustained U.S.-China or U.S.-Russia combat.

  • Direct U.S.-Soviet fighting was avoided throughout the Cold War, despite Korea, Berlin, Cuba, and proxy wars.
  • Taiwan is the clearest trigger: a Chinese invasion or blockade could force U.S. intervention, but deterrence still restrains Beijing.
  • A Russian attack on NATO or a major Taiwan mobilization would sharply raise the estimate; both require choices by Moscow or Beijing before 2035.

  openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 24 Sept 2026
  22%
• C
  ClaudeAnthropic

  Turns on whether Taiwan or NATO/Baltic flashpoints escalate to sustained direct US-China/Russia combat within a decade.

  • Historical base rate of great-power direct war since 1945 is low due to nuclear deterrence and mutual restraint mechanisms.
  • Taiwan Strait tensions, South China Sea friction, and NATO-Russia proxy dynamics create plausible but still contained escalation paths through 2035.
  • A Chinese invasion of Taiwan triggering US intervention, or a NATO Article 5 incident with Russia, would be the decisive trigger that flips this scenario.

  anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 24 Sept 2026
  16%
• G
  GeminiGoogle

  Mutual nuclear deterrence and catastrophic economic co-dependency make deliberate great-power war overwhelmingly irrational.

  • A direct Taiwan Strait invasion before 2035 is the primary trigger, but US intervention would likely rely on proxies or blockades.
  • Zero direct great-power wars have occurred since 1945, creating an enduring sub-2% annualized base rate under nuclear umbrellas.
  • A rapid Chinese military buildup forcing a definitive US naval engagement would push my estimate higher than 25%.

  google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 24 Sept 2026
  14%
• G
  GrokxAI

  Deterrence must fail into sustained US-Russia or US-China conventional war despite nukes.

  • US, PRC or RF leaders would have to order or stumble into direct combat; none has since 1945.
  • Post-WWII 8-year great-power war base rate is ~0; Ukraine/Taiwan remain proxy so far.
  • A Taiwan invasion or NATO Article-5 trigger that draws US ground/air forces would flip it.

  x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 24 Sept 2026
  12%
• D
  DeepSeekDeepSeek

  This turns on whether a Taiwan blockade or a NATO-Russia shootdown escalates to sustained US combat before 2035.

  • Since 1945 the US and USSR/Russia or China have never fought a sustained direct war; the base rate over any 9-year window is near zero, so 12% is already generous.
  • The plausible paths are a Taiwan invasion drawing US intervention or a Russian attack on NATO logistics; both require a decision by Xi or Putin that they have so far…
  • The single development that would most raise this is a Chinese blockade or quarantine of Taiwan, which forces a US response within days rather than years.

  deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 24 Sept 2026
  12%
• Q
  QwenAlibaba

  Nuclear deterrence has prevented direct US-Russia/China warfare for 80 years; that structural barrier hasn't eroded enough in 9 years.

  • Since 1945, zero direct US-Soviet/Russian or US-Chinese wars occurred despite Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, and multiple proxy crises—base rate is effectively zero.
  • Both Russia and China possess second-strike nuclear arsenals; no credible pathway to sustained direct conventional war exists without escalation logic that deters…
  • A Taiwan Strait crisis is the most plausible trigger, but even hawkish war-games show both sides have strong incentives to keep conflict limited rather than escalate to…

  qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 24 Sept 2026
  4%

6 of 6 models answered · 18 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.