A nuclear weapon is used in military conflict before the end of 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 2% by 2 Feb 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

2% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-02-02.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 1% — The taboo against first nuclear use remains resilient over this two-month window barring sudden existential regime collapse. No nuclear weapon has been used in conflict since 1945, giving an annualized baseline risk below one-tenth of a percent. Russia, Israel, and North Korea retain conventional dominance or deterrence margins sufficient to avoid crossing the nuclear threshold before 2027. A direct conventional attack on Russian command centers threatening core state survival would dramatically raise this estimate.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 2% — No state has used a nuclear weapon in combat since 1945; deterrence and escalation taboos hold firm. Base rate over 80 years is essentially zero despite multiple wars involving nuclear states. Current flashpoints (Ukraine, Taiwan, India-Pakistan) show signaling and brinkmanship but no credible first-use decision pathway. Would require a leader to break the nuclear taboo under extreme desperation; no current indicator suggests imminent breakdown of deterrence.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 6% — It turns chiefly on whether a major-power conventional defeat drives leaders past decades of nuclear taboo within 57 days. No state has used a nuclear weapon in conflict since 1945, despite repeated crises including Korea, Cuba, and the Ukraine war. Russia, the U.S., China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea would need authorize use; command controls and retaliation risks strongly deter it. A sudden Russian battlefield-collapse or direct NATO-Russia war would change this estimate most, but neither is presently a near-term necessity.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 2% — Turns on a nuclear power detonating a warhead in combat in the next 57 days. No state has used nukes since 1945 despite Cuba, 1973, Kargil and Ukraine; the remaining window is too short for a new cycle. Russia, the likeliest actor, has threatened for three years without crossing; no visible collapse or leadership shock exists now. A sudden battlefield rout or coup would be the only plausible trigger, neither of which is in evidence.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 2% — Only Russia's battlefield doctrine or a cornered Pakistan/India crisis could detonate a device in eight weeks; both remain deterred. No state has used a nuclear weapon in war since 1945, an 80-year base rate of zero despite Korea, Vietnam, Kargil, and Ukraine. Russia's 2024 doctrine revision lowered the threshold but Putin has repeatedly declined to cross it even as Ukraine struck Russian territory. The fastest path would be a Russian tactical demonstration after a collapsing front, but no such collapse is underway as of November 2026.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 2% — Only ~8 weeks remain; the 81-year nuclear taboo plus decision-making friction make a last-minute break nearly impossible. No nuclear use since 1945; even Russia's most escalatory rhetoric in Ukraine never produced deployment orders or observable prep. A state would need to overcome command-and-control safeguards, alliance pressure, and retaliation risk within 8 weeks—no current crisis shows that trajectory. A sudden India-Pakistan or Korean Peninsula escalation to nuclear threshold in this window would require a conventional collapse no one is currently forecasting.

A nuclear weapon is used in military conflict before the end of 2026.

The New START treaty or an equivalent bilateral US-Russia nuclear framework expires without replacement before 2027.

The US publicly announces the end of its naval blockade of Iran by November 15, 2026.

A nuclear weapon is detonated in an act of war before 2030.

A third world war begins before 2030.