The New START treaty or an equivalent bilateral US-Russia nuclear framework expires without replacement before

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 93% by 4 Nov 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

93% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-11-04.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 98% — New START reached its fixed expiration in February 2026 without any ratified bilateral successor framework in place. New START expired on February 5, 2026, and political relations over Ukraine foreclosed any formal bilateral negotiations. Ratifying a legally binding successor requires a two-thirds majority in the US Senate, an insurmountable hurdle in current politics. A formal extension or replacement would require de-escalation that neither Washington nor Moscow showed interest in pursuing.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 82% — New START expires Feb 2026 with no successor in force amid frozen US-Russia arms control talks. Putin suspended compliance in 2023 and both sides show no urgency to negotiate a binding replacement before February 2026 expiry. Historically major US-Russia arms treaties take years of negotiation (START I, New START took ~1 year under cooperative conditions), unrealistic given current hostility… A sudden Trump-Putin summit producing a quick extension or informal mutual restraint pledge is the main scenario that would flip this, but no formal treaty seems likely.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 93% — New START’s February 2026 expiry passed amid suspended inspections and no viable U.S.-Russia successor talks. Russia suspended participation in February 2023, and New START expired on 5 February 2026 without a replacement treaty. A binding framework would require U.S.-Russia negotiations, signatures, and likely Senate consent amid the Ukraine war and hostile relations. I would cut this sharply only if Washington and Moscow announce and implement a verifiable bilateral limits arrangement before late 2027.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 92% — New START lapsed 5 Feb 2026 with no successor in force. Russia suspended participation in 2023 and no negotiating track produced a binding follow-on by expiry. Ukraine war froze US-Russia channels; no equivalent framework has been announced nine months later. Only an unannounced late-2026 Trump-Putin pact could still qualify, which base rates of post-Cold-War arms control make unlikely.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 93% — No successor treaty exists and Russia suspended compliance, so expiration without replacement is near-certain. New START expires February 5, 2026, and no successor talks have convened since the 2023 Russian suspension. Both parties must ratify any replacement, and the US Senate requires 67 votes, a bar no arms treaty has cleared since 2010. Russia conditioned talks on halting US aid to Ukraine, making a signed framework before 2027 highly improbable.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 97% — New START already expired Feb 5, 2026 with no successor negotiated; US-Russia relations preclude any near-term replacement. New START lapsed on schedule in February 2026; Russia suspended participation in Feb 2023 and no formal successor talks have been reported. Even under optimistic assumptions, a new bilateral treaty requires negotiation, signature, and ratification—impossible within 12 months given the Ukraine war and… Only a surprise executive-level interim framework (not requiring ratification) could flip this; no credible reporting suggests one is in development.

The New START treaty or an equivalent bilateral US-Russia nuclear framework expires without replacement before 2027.

What each one said

The New START treaty or an equivalent bilateral US-Russia nuclear framework expires without replacement before 2027.

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