Active-month WTI crude oil futures trade at or above $105 per barrel during September 2026.
Energy markets are tracking potential crude supply shocks. Resolves as yes if any 1-minute candle high for active-month WTI futures reaches or exceeds $105 during September 2026 trading sessions per Pyth data.
Across 5 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 4%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 37% and Claude at 2%, 35 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 100%, so the models are 96 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
Settled by Polymarket: “Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?” resolved YES.
Settled by the exchange The prediction market this came from paid out on this outcome. Real money, with a formal dispute window — the strongest evidence available here.
The market that settled it asked: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?
- AI edge
- -96 pts
- Moved this week
- +85 pts
- Since we asked
- +25 pts
- Volume
- $714K
The models are sharply less confident than traders risking real money: 4% against 100%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
Two weeks remain, but a $105 spike needs a sizable fresh supply shock from current market levels.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202637% -
GrokxAI
Needs ~25-40% spike in ~12 sessions; historically only major wars produce that.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 20268% -
GeminiGoogle
Reaching $105 requires an extreme acute supply shock or war, very unlikely in a two-week window.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20264% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
WTI near $70s mid-Sept 2026; $105 needs a ~40%+ spike in two weeks, historically near-impossible absent war-level shock.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 20264% -
ClaudeAnthropic
WTI trading far below $105; would need massive supply shock in remaining days
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20262% -
QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
5 of 6 models answered · 35 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final thre
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.