Alberto Núñez Feijóo becomes the next Prime Minister of Spain.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 7% by 30 Nov 2026. The market says 93%. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

7% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-30.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 2% — Unseating Pedro Sánchez and conducting an investiture vote within three weeks is procedurally and politically impossible. A constructive vote of no confidence requires Junts and Vox to align on Feijóo, which neither party is currently pursuing. Spanish parliamentary procedures and mandatory constitutional timelines mean an unannounced government change cannot finish by November 30. A snap collapse of Sánchez's coalition would trigger new general elections rather than an immediate Feijóo swearing-in.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 5% — Sánchez's coalition holds and no confidence vote or snap election is imminent before the Nov 30, 2026 window closes. No current trigger exists for a new investiture vote; Sánchez remains PM with no scheduled no-confidence motion or election. Even if political crisis erupted suddenly, forming a new government and investiture vote within three weeks is logistically implausible. PP leads polls but lacks the parliamentary majority pathway absent new elections, which haven't been called for this window.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 12% — Feijóo needs Sánchez to lose his governing majority and the PP to turn a snap-election win into 176 investiture votes. Pedro Sánchez was re-elected in November 2023; Spain’s next ordinary general election is due by August 2027. The PP led the 2023 vote but Feijóo’s September investiture failed 172–178, showing its coalition ceiling without new allies. A PSOE collapse, Vox moderation, or a larger PP majority in a 2027 election would sharply raise the chance.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 8% — A new PM needs an investiture vote plus swearing-in; that cannot finish in 21 days unless already underway. King must nominate, Congress hold two votes, then a formal oath; none of those steps is scheduled as of 9 Nov. Base rate of mid-term PM swaps in Spain is near-zero without a prior election or no-confidence motion already tabled. Only a pre-existing, public investiture calendar would move the odds; none exists.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 8% — Feijóo needs a Congress majority he has never assembled, and no election is due before 2027. Feijóo needs 176 votes in the 350-seat Congress; PP has 137, Vox 33, and Vox's price for support has been a coalition or nothing. Sánchez's PSOE has 121 seats and can block any PP-led investiture with Sumar, ERC, Junts, and Basque nationalists, as it did in 2023. No election is scheduled before 2027, so the path runs through a fragmented chamber where Feijóo has never assembled a majority.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 2% — 21 days is far too short for any procedural path to a Feijóo investiture, even if Sánchez's government collapsed tomorrow. A moción de censura or royal nomination plus investiture debate requires weeks of procedural steps in the Congress of Deputies alone. Sánchez's coalition with Sumar and regional parties, while strained, has not shown imminent collapse as of late 2026. Even a sudden resignation would trigger a consultation round with the King and a new investiture attempt, exceeding the 21-day window.

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