Pedro Sánchez is sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Spain following a vote of confidence.
Spanish parliamentary dynamics track whether Pedro Sánchez successfully forms the next government and wins an investiture vote by March 31, 2028.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 6%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 39% and Grok at 1%, 38 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Traders risking real money on Polymarket land in the same place, at 7%.
Nothing is settled until 30 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -1 pts
- Moved this week
- -4 pts
- Volume
- $994K
The panel and the market agree almost exactly — 6% against 7%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether Sánchez can retain or rebuild a congressional investiture majority before another candidate does.
- The Congress of Deputies must elect a candidate by absolute majority first ballot or simple majority on a second ballot, then the King appoints them.
- Spanish incumbents can survive fragmented parliaments, but coalition partners and regional parties regularly extract terms or withdraw support, making repeat investiture…
- A fresh election producing a workable PSOE-led bloc, or a negotiated PSOE coalition deal, would materially raise the odds before March 2028.
39% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Sánchez needs a fresh investiture win by Nov 30, 2026, and no election is scheduled before then.
- Sánchez last won investiture in Nov 2023; his term runs to 2027, so a new confidence vote by Nov 2026 requires a snap election or voluntary resignation first.
- Only Sánchez can trigger dissolution, and no coalition partner (Junts, ERC) is currently demanding one; Catalan amnesty fallout has instead weakened his leverage.
- Base rate for a sitting PM winning a fresh confidence vote inside a 12-month window without an election is low, under 15%; the 2027 general election timing sits just…
22% -
QwenAlibaba
Sánchez is already PM; a new investiture requires snap elections or resignation before Nov 2026, both unlikely.
- Sánchez's current term runs to ~mid-2027; snap elections before Nov 2026 require him to voluntarily dissolve Cortes, which he has little incentive to do given his…
- Even if snap elections occurred, Sánchez winning a new investiture is uncertain—polls show PP competitive and his coalition partners (Junts, ERC) are unreliable.
- Base rate of Spanish snap elections mid-term is low (only 2016 and 2019 in recent decades), and Sánchez has shown preference for grinding through legislative…
7% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Sánchez is already PM; a new investiture vote before Nov 30, 2026 would require his government to fall first.
- No confidence motion, resignation, or election has been triggered as of Nov 9, 2026, so a fresh investiture is unlikely in three weeks.
- Base rate for a snap government collapse and full re-investiture within a narrow 3-week window is very low absent an active crisis.
- A sudden coalition collapse or successful no-confidence motion before Nov 30 would be the main thing to change this.
5% -
GeminiGoogle
Spanish law requires 54 days for elections, leaving an ongoing investiture post-snap election as Sánchez's only narrow path by month-end.
- Under Spain's LOREG, elections take 54 days, so an investiture before November 30 requires a prior October election and sudden majority.
- Polling consistently shows PP and Vox leading parliamentary math, making a renewed Sánchez majority unlikely even if a vote took place.
- A formal session scheduled this week confirming Junts and ERC backing for Sánchez's continuation is the sole way this happens.
3% -
GrokxAI
No new investiture can occur in the 21 days left before the cutoff.
- Spain requires royal dissolution then ~54 days to polling; none is underway on 9 Nov 2026.
- Sánchez already holds office from the 2023 investiture; a fresh confidence vote and swearing-in is needed to count as ‘next’.
- Only an instantaneous constitutional crisis plus same-day vote would change this, which has zero precedent.
1%
6 of 6 models answered · 38 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.