All participating nations endorse Turkey's COP31 climate summit action agenda.
President Erdogan called for unanimous support for Turkey's COP31 agenda despite pace disparities. Unanimous adoption by all delegations is required.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 16%.
They do not agree: DeepSeek puts it at 62% and Gemini at 8%, 54 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 26 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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DeepSeekDeepSeek
COP agendas are adopted by consensus, so the question is whether any single party blocks Turkey's text before Antalya closes.
- Turkey holds the COP31 presidency and Antalya hosts it in November 2026, giving Ankara control of the gavel and draft agenda.
- Every COP since 1995 has adopted its agenda, though opening plenaries often gavel through with items held in informal consultations rather than full clean endorsement.
- Erdogan's public push for unanimity signals the text is already softened to avoid a single-country veto, which raises the odds above the bare base rate.
62% -
GrokxAI
COP31 must close with consensus on Turkey’s host action agenda, not a diluted or split text.
- COP31 runs Nov 2026; consensus (no objection) is the only adoption path, so any petrostate, US or China hold-out blocks it.
- Hosts routinely table agendas but full endorsement of the original package is rare once pace/fossil-fuel splits surface, as at COP28-29.
- A last-minute watering-down or walk-out by even one major emitter would falsify the claim.
32% -
GPTOpenAI
Consensus COP outcomes are vulnerable to a single holdout, and Turkey must bridge sharply divergent national pace and finance demands.
- COP decisions require every participating delegation to accept text, giving major emitters and vulnerable states effective veto power by December.
- Recent COPs have produced consensus only after late compromises; an action agenda faces a higher bar than procedural language.
- Odds rise materially if Turkey circulates finance-backed, low-ambition language early enough to secure EU, China, US and G77 support.
18% -
QwenAlibaba
Unanimous endorsement of any COP agenda is historically unprecedented; one holdout kills it.
- COP decisions require consensus among ~195 parties; even the Paris Agreement had Nicaragua and Syria initially abstaining.
- Turkey's agenda likely includes contentious items (finance, phase-out timelines) that will face resistance from blocs like BASIC or small island states.
- A single delegation objecting or abstaining—plausible given Turkey's own fossil fuel expansion—would defeat unanimity; base rate for full consensus on substantive…
14% -
GeminiGoogle
Unanimous COP endorsement requires universal sign-off across ~198 parties, which geopolitical rifts and fossil fuels routinely derail.
- Turkey faces ongoing regional disputes with EU members like Cyprus and Greece that historically block uncontested consensus.
- COP cover decisions operate under strict consensus, meaning a single holdout over mitigation text or finance tanks full endorsement.
- Drafting uncontroversial language by December 2026 would help, but total consensus on host agendas almost never achieves 100% formal buy-in.
8% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Unanimous COP endorsements are historically rare given entrenched blocs (G77, EU, small islands, oil states).
- COP outcomes almost never achieve true unanimity on action agendas; watered-down consensus texts with footnoted objections are the norm.
- Turkey hosting doesn't erase deep divides between developed/developing nations on finance, mitigation pace, and fossil fuel phase-out language.
- A dramatic pre-summit diplomatic breakthrough or drastically weakened text acceptable to all blocs would be needed to flip this.
8%
6 of 6 models answered · 54 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 27 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.