Apple drops major iOS update support for the iPhone 15 before December 2030.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 68% by 5 Nov 2031. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

68% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2031-11-05.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 74% — Turns on whether Apple extends its typical six-to-seven-year iOS upgrade support window for the baseline A16-powered iPhone 15. Apple usually drops baseline iPhones after 6 to 7 major OS cycles; iOS 24 in autumn 2030 marks year 7 for the late-2023 iPhone 15. The baseline 15 only carries 6GB RAM and lacks Apple Intelligence, making it prime to sunset with iOS 23 or iOS 24 in 2029-2030. Precedent shows the iPhone 6s reached 7 releases, but most (like iPhone 7, 8, X) lost major version support at year 5 or 6.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 22% — Depends on whether Apple holds its ~5-6 year major iOS support window steady through 2030. Apple has historically supported iPhones for 5-6 years of major iOS updates; iPhone 15 (2023) would drop around iOS 29-30 in 2028-2029. Recent trend shows Apple extending support length (iPhone 6s got 7 years), making a cutoff before Dec 2030 less likely than historical average. If Apple sticks to its tightest historical pattern (6 years), iPhone 15 could lose support with iOS 31 in fall 2029, still within window but trend favors longer support.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 82% — It mainly turns on whether Apple’s next four annual iOS cycles follow its usual roughly six-year flagship support pattern. Apple must omit iPhone 15 from an annual iOS compatibility list released by iOS 34 in fall 2030 at the latest. Recent flagships commonly receive 6–7 major releases: iPhone X ended at iOS 16 after six, while 2018 models reached iOS 18. A major chip-security or performance constraint would raise the odds; an iPhone XS-style seven-year run would be the main contrary precedent.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 62% — iPhone 15 needs the Sept 2030 iOS to avoid a drop; recent A-series phones last 6 yrs more often than 7. Apple must ship the 2030 major iOS (likely iOS 24) still listing iPhone 15; that decision is locked by WWDC 2030. 2017-21 iPhones averaged 5-6 years of majors (X:5, XS:6); 7-year support remains the exception, not the mean. A16 + 6 GB RAM matches the 14-series cutoff pattern; only a surprise RAM/SoC longevity announcement would push it to 7 years.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 8% — Apple would have to break its ~7-year support pattern and cut the iPhone 15 off after only 7 iOS cycles. Apple's recent floor is ~6-7 years of major iOS support: iPhone 6s got iOS 9-15, iPhone XR got iOS 12-18, so the iPhone 15 (iOS 17, 2023) should reach iOS 23-24. The cutoff decision lands with Apple's software team around WWDC 2030 for iOS 24; the iPhone 15 would need to be dropped from that release, not just from minor updates. Base rate for a flagship iPhone losing major support within 7 cycles is near zero; the only way this flips is a regulatory or silicon-supply shock forcing Apple to…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 93% — Apple's longest-ever iPhone support is ~7 years; iPhone 15 would need 8+ to survive past Dec 2030. Historical pattern: iPhone 6s (2015) lasted ~7 years; every model since iPhone 7 has been dropped at 5–6 years, making 8 years unprecedented. iPhone 15 launched Sept 2023; a 6-year window means iOS 24 (Sept 2029) drops it, a 7-year window means iOS 25 (Sept 2030)—both before the deadline. Only a radical shift in Apple's hardware-software strategy (e.g., regulatory mandate or major chip architecture change) would push support to 8+ years.

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