▣ CONSUMER TECH 3 YEARS HORIZON RESOLVES 5 NOV 2029 · in 3.0y

Apple ends major iOS version support for the iPhone 13 before the release of iOS 22 in 2028.

Apple typically supports iPhones with major OS upgrades for 5 to 7 years. Resolves as true if the iPhone 13 is excluded from receiving the next major iOS release before late 2028.

Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 60%.

They do not agree: Qwen puts it at 89% and DeepSeek at 12%, 77 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.

Nothing is settled until 5 Nov 2029, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.

MODEL BY MODEL

What each one said

  • QwenAlibaba

    Apple's 5–6 year support window means iPhone 13 almost certainly gets cut at iOS 21 or iOS 22, both before iOS 22 ships.

    • iPhone 13 launched Sept 2021; even at Apple's generous 6-year ceiling (iPhone 6s precedent), it's dropped from iOS 22 at WWDC June 2028, resolving true.
    • The 5-year pattern (iPhone 8, XR, 11 all dropped at ~5 years) points to a June 2027 cutoff at iOS 21, making this nearly certain.
    • Only a unprecedented 7th year of support would resolve false; no non-SE iPhone has ever received that, and A15 performance alone hasn't shifted Apple's cadence.
    qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 6 Nov 2026
    89%
  • GeminiGoogle

    The iPhone 13's 4GB RAM ceiling will likely cause Apple to retire it after 6 major OS upgrades, before iOS 22 arrives in 2028.

    • Base rates show iPhones rarely receive seven major OS updates, with the 6s and XR/XS lines capping out at five or six cycles.
    • Hardware demands from on-device Apple Intelligence make 4GB devices the primary candidates for deprecation by iOS 21 in 2027.
    • Support surviving to iOS 22 would require Apple breaking precedent to grant an unprecedented seven-year feature release window.
    google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 6 Nov 2026
    79%
  • GrokxAI

    iPhone 13 (A15, 2021) most likely last gets iOS 21 (2027), missing iOS 22.

    • Apple must ship iOS 22 ~Sep 2028; dropping 13 then is a 7-year window after launch iOS 15.
    • Base rate is 5–6 major upgrades (XR 2018–iOS 17; 11 2019–iOS 18); 7+ years remains rare even with A15.
    • A15 still capable and support has lengthened, so an iOS-22 inclusion would flip this, but hardware cutoff usually hits first.
    x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 6 Nov 2026
    62%
  • ClaudeAnthropic

    Hinges on whether iPhone 13's A15 chip gets cut off at iOS 20 or 21, versus stretching to iOS 22.

    • Apple has historically supported flagship-era iPhones 6-7 years; iPhone 13 (2021) would hit 7 years in 2028, near iOS 22's expected release.
    • Older A-series chips (like A12 in iPhone XS/XR) got dropped around 6 years, suggesting iPhone 13 with A15 could last to iOS 21 or 22 but is borderline.
    • Apple's recent trend has extended support slightly for newer chips, which could push iPhone 13 cutoff right at or just after iOS 22, making this a close call.
    anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 6 Nov 2026
    58%
  • GPTOpenAI

    This hinges on whether Apple breaks its recent six-major-release norm for an A15-era flagship.

    • Apple must omit iPhone 13 from iOS 22, likely announced at WWDC in June 2028 and released that September.
    • Recent cutoffs usually follow about six upgrades: iPhone X got iOS 11–16, while XS-era phones reached iOS 18.
    • iPhone 13 launched with iOS 15, so iOS 22 would be its seventh upgrade; a 2027 cutoff would materially raise the odds.
    openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 6 Nov 2026
    22%
  • DeepSeekDeepSeek

    Apple would have to drop a 2021 phone after only ~6 iOS generations, well short of its recent 7-8 year pattern.

    • iPhone 13 shipped Sept 2021 on iOS 15; iOS 22 in 2028 would be its 8th major version, and Apple has never cut a flagship that early.
    • Precedent: iPhone 6s (2015) got iOS 15 in 2021, 7 versions; iPhone XR (2018) still runs iOS 26 in 2026, 8 versions.
    • Apple must announce at WWDC 2028; only a chip/RAM cutoff (A15 has 4GB) or regulatory shift would flip this, and A15 still clears current baselines.
    deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 6 Nov 2026
    12%

6 of 6 models answered · 77 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?
loading…

Question sourced from a news sweep on 6 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.