At least one AI incident report is formally submitted under the EU Cyber Resilience Act in September 2026.
Incident-reporting mandates under the Cyber Resilience Act activated on 11 September 2026. Official logging of an AI product incident before October qualifies.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 25%.
They do not agree: Claude puts it at 72% and Qwen at 7%, 65 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 14 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
ClaudeAnthropic
CRA reporting mandate starts exactly then; broad IoT/software scope makes at least one incident likely
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
GrokxAI
CRA just activated; 16 days left and only severe/exploited AI-product incidents trigger reports.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202628% -
GeminiGoogle
Short 19-day window post-activation makes an AI-specific incident submission possible but unlikely.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202627% -
GPTOpenAI
The mandate is only days old; formal reporting pipelines and qualifying AI incidents may not materialize in September.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Reporting duty just activated; first filings typically lag weeks, and AI-specific incidents rarely surface that fast.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202612% -
QwenAlibaba
CRA incident reporting just activated 3 days ago; vendors need time to detect, classify, and formally submit.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 20267%
6 of 6 models answered · 65 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.