BepiColombo achieves Mercury orbital capture by November 21, 2026.
Following the scheduled September 2026 transfer module separation, ESA's flight plan targets Mercury orbital insertion around November 21, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel treats this as close to settled: the median is 87%.
They broadly agree, 10 points between Gemini at 92% and Grok at 82%.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
BepiColombo is in late cruise; major orbit insertion failures on mature ESA/JAXA flagships are rare.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202692% -
GPTOpenAI
Insertion is an established near-term plan, but final cruise maneuvers and spacecraft health remain failure risks.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202689% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Mission on track after successful flybys; MOI is a well-planned, standard maneuver with margin before deadline
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202688% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Orbit insertion is scheduled ~Nov 21; main risks are minor schedule slips or burn failure, both historically low for ESA.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202685% -
GrokxAI
On-track post-delay plan; MOI is high-stakes but ESA insertions usually succeed within days of target.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202682% -
QwenAlibaba
All prior flybys nominal; main risk is SEP/ion thruster anomaly during final cruise phase.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202682%
6 of 6 models answered · 10 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.