Blue Origin delivers the Mars telecommunications orbiter to NASA by December 31, 2028.
NASA awarded Blue Origin a contract of up to $700 million to build the Mars Telecommunications Network. Fulfillment requires delivery of the spacecraft by the end of 2028.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 34%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 57% and Grok at 22%, 35 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Sept 2029, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Blue Origin has funding and a defined award, but spacecraft delivery by 2028 leaves little schedule margin.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202657% -
QwenAlibaba
Blue Origin has no deep-space delivery track record; New Glenn delays make 2028 delivery ambitious.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202638% -
GeminiGoogle
Deep space orbiter developments face high delay rates, making a strict 2028 deadline hard to meet.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202637% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Aerospace/NASA programs routinely slip; Blue Origin also new to deep-space missions with tight timeline
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202630% -
GrokxAI
Blue Origin delays plus thin planetary-spacecraft heritage make on-time 2028 delivery unlikely.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Blue Origin has never flown a deep-space orbiter; first-time interplanetary hardware rarely meets a 2028 delivery.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202622%
6 of 6 models answered · 35 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.