BYD is fully removed from the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027.
The Pentagon maintains a list of Chinese military-linked companies under Section 1260H. This resolves if BYD is formally delisted before the deadline.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 12%.
They broadly agree, 12 points between Grok at 18% and Claude at 6%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 23%, so the models are 11 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jul 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -11 pts
- Moved this week
- +8 pts
- Volume
- $95K
The models are slightly less confident than traders risking real money: 12% against 23%.
What each one said
-
GrokxAI
BYD must win a DoD 1260H petition or court order that produces an updated list omitting it by 30 Jun 2027.
- DoD publishes the list on its own schedule; a successful challenge still needs an official update within nine months.
- Removals have been rare (single-digit share of names since 2021); BYD’s EV/battery dual-use profile sits above that base rate.
- A swift injunction or explicit DoD finding of no CMC nexus is the only development that would raise the odds sharply.
18% -
GeminiGoogle
Removal requires either successful litigation or a diplomatic bargain, both face steep geopolitical headwinds.
- Delisting from 1260H is rare and typically requires winning an APA lawsuit in DC federal court, which usually takes 12-18 months.
- Bipartisan political pressure on Chinese EV and battery champions makes voluntary DoD delisting virtually impossible before mid-2027.
- Precedents like Hesai and Xiaomi show litigation can force removal, but DoD has tightened evidentiary standards since to avoid repeats.
12% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
BYD's delisting requires the Pentagon to reverse a June 2026 designation, and no such reversal mechanism has ever been used.
- The 1260H list has only ever grown; no company has been formally removed since the list's 2021 inception, making the base rate near zero.
- BYD was added in June 2026 under the NDAA's expanded scope covering EV and battery firms, and the Pentagon has shown no appetite to walk that back.
- Congress would need to pressure DoD or a court would need to order removal; BYD's own lawsuit against the designation is pending but unlikely to conclude by mid-2027.
12% -
QwenAlibaba
Removal requires DoD to affirmatively reverse a designation, which rarely happens without a major geopolitical thaw.
- DoD has removed only a handful of companies from the 1260H list since its inception; the default trajectory is addition, not removal.
- BYD's EV dominance and battery supply chain ties to PLA logistics make it a politically easy target to keep listed through 2027.
- A US-China trade deal or congressional mandate forcing delisting would be the main catalyst, but no such mechanism is currently in motion.
12% -
GPTOpenAI
Absent a successful court challenge or a major policy reversal, Pentagon 1260H designations rarely get affirmatively unwound quickly.
- DoD must issue an updated official list omitting BYD by June 30, 2027; a corporate denial alone cannot qualify.
- The practical precedent is persistence: firms challenge these listings, but removals generally require litigation, settlement, or new evidence.
- A final BYD court win or DoD settlement before spring 2027 would sharply raise the odds.
9% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Delisting requires DoD to reverse BYD's designation, which is rare and legally contested by companies with little success.
- Companies challenge 1260H listings via litigation (e.g., Luokung, Hesai) but removals are rare and take years, not months.
- BYD's ties to Chinese state industrial policy and EV/battery sector make removal politically unlikely amid ongoing US-China tech tensions.
- A successful court order or DoD reversal before June 2027 would flip this, but no such case is currently pending for BYD specifically.
6%
6 of 6 models answered · 12 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger
Question sourced from Polymarket on 21 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.