China's solar power capacity remains higher than coal capacity in the next official national energy statistics.
Solar capacity recently overtook coal capacity as China's leading electricity source. Falsification depends on whether the subsequent official release from Chinese energy authorities confirms solar retains the top spot.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel treats this as close to settled: the median is 90%.
They broadly agree, 10 points between Gemini at 98% and Claude at 88%.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
Solar additions massively outpace coal additions, making a reversal in capacity virtually impossible.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202698% -
GrokxAI
Solar additions (~200+ GW/yr) dwarf coal (~50-80 GW); recent overtake gap will widen.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202695% -
GPTOpenAI
Solar additions are vastly outpacing coal; a reversal within the next official release is unlikely.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202691% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Solar additions vastly outpace coal, gap likely to widen further by next release
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202688% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Solar additions far outpace coal; once ahead, trend strongly favors staying ahead in next release.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202688% -
QwenAlibaba
Solar overtook coal in mid-2025; capacity only grows, no mechanism to reverse before year-end stats.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202688%
6 of 6 models answered · 10 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.