Climate change causes human extinction before 2100.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 1% by 27 Sept 2076. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

1% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2076-09-27.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 1% — Climate change poses catastrophic civilizational risks, but eliminating every single human habitat by 2100 violates physical models. IPCC AR6 high-emissions pathways project severe ecological collapse, but high-latitude and subterranean enclaves remain biologically viable. Human extinction requires 100% mortality, a threshold that even runaway warming feedback loops cannot induce within 50 to 75 years. I would raise odds only if low-probability clathrate-gun or runaway moist-greenhouse dynamics trigger unlivable planetary boiling by 2060.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 0% — No credible climate science pathway leads to full human extinction within this timeframe. Mainstream climate models (IPCC) project severe disruption, famine, migration, and conflict risk, but not literal species extinction by 2100. Humans occupy enormously diverse climates and have adaptive capacity (technology, migration, agriculture shifts) that precludes total extinction even under high-emission… Resolution date 2076 is even earlier than 2100, shrinking the window further; no scientific body forecasts extinction-level climate outcomes this century.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 1% — Human extinction requires cascading global failures far beyond even high-end warming projections over the next 50 years. IPCC assessed pathways through 2100 project severe harm and mortality, not a mechanism that reliably eliminates every human population. Total extinction would require governments, food systems, shelters, and geographically dispersed survivors all to fail before 2076. I would revise sharply upward if observed warming or Earth-system feedbacks exceeded assessed high-end scenarios within the next two decades.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 1% — Runaway or Venus-style warming making Earth uninhabitable for all humans by 2100. IPCC AR6 and even RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 project 3–5 °C by 2100, catastrophic but far from extinction; no model yields wet-bulb or CO2 levels lethal everywhere. Human extinction from climate has a geological, not 74-year, base rate; known feedbacks (permafrost, clathrates) lack evidence for the required speed or magnitude. Only an unknown, near-term tipping cascade far beyond current physics would change this; none is indicated by paleoclimate or observations.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 1% — This turns on whether warming can plausibly kill every human on Earth within 74 years, which no physical mechanism in the literature supports. Even IPCC AR6 worst-case RCP8.5 gives ~4-5C by 2100, which devastates agriculture and coasts but leaves habitable zones in Siberia, Canada, and Antarctica. Extinction requires a global kill mechanism; warming-driven candidates like methane clathrate runaway or ocean anoxia operate on 10^4-10^6 year timescales, not decades. The base rate for any Homo sapiens extinction scenario in a 74-year window is well under 1%, and climate-specific pathways sit below broader risks like nuclear war or…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 1% — Total human extinction from climate alone requires feedback loops far beyond any credible IPCC scenario. Even the worst-case SSP5-8.5 projects ~4.4°C by 2100—catastrophic but not extinction-level; no peer-reviewed model produces human die-off to zero. Humans occupy every continent including Antarctica with technology; past climate shifts (Ice Ages, PETM) never eliminated the species. Would require methane clathrate runaway or similar tipping cascade that mainstream climatology assigns negligible probability this century.

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