Commercial maritime shipping resumes unobstructed transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent mine strikes and vessel fires have disrupted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran proposing conditional terms for safe transit.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 33%.
They do not agree: Claude puts it at 78% and DeepSeek at 14%, 64 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 6 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether current low-level disruptions escalate into sustained closure or fade as transient incidents.
- Iran has never fully closed Hormuz historically despite repeated threats, as it relies on the strait economically too.
- Base rate favors continued flow since ~20% of global oil transits daily and no major power wants prolonged disruption.
- Key risk is further mine strikes or US-Iran military escalation that could force insurers to halt transit for weeks.
78% -
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether Iran and regional navies can turn conditional passage into a monitored, credible safety arrangement within 30 days.
- Iran, Oman, the U.S.-led naval presence, insurers and shipowners must accept practical passage rules before 6 December.
- Past Gulf disruptions often ease within weeks, but mine clearance and war-risk insurance usually lag any political de-escalation.
- A verified Iran-backed halt to attacks plus published mine-clearance and escort procedures would sharply raise the odds.
57% -
GrokxAI
Iran dropping conditions plus minesweeping completed in 30 days.
- Iran must withdraw terms and halt attacks by ~20 Nov for traffic to normalize by 6 Dec.
- Coalition minesweeping historically takes 2-4 weeks after last strike; 2019 tanker attacks reopened in ~3 weeks without political strings.
- Conditional Iranian offer puts this below that base rate unless a US-Iran side deal materializes.
38% -
QwenAlibaba
One month is tight to both satisfy Iran's conditions and physically clear mines to 'unobstructed' standard.
- Mine clearance is methodical; even after a deal, sweeping the strait to commercial-insurer confidence typically takes weeks to months.
- Iran's conditional terms imply a negotiation that must clear before any physical work begins, and Tehran has little incentive to concede fast.
- Would move up sharply if a US-Iran backchannel deal were announced within the next 10 days, since coalition naval assets could then sweep rapidly.
28% -
GeminiGoogle
Resolving mine threats and lifting war-risk premiums requires comprehensive security guarantees that take longer than thirty days.
- Lloyd's Market Association requires mine clearance and de-escalation guarantees before removing Joint War Committee breach status.
- Iran's conditional transit demands necessitate diplomatic bargaining and verification protocols that rarely close within a month.
- A formal naval convoy protection agreement led by US or coalition forces would accelerate resumption, but remains unagreed.
22% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether Iran's IRGC actually stands down its conditional-transit regime before insurers and shippers re-rate the corridor.
- Iran's IRGC Navy controls the northern corridor and has tied safe passage to sanctions relief, which the US Treasury has not granted.
- Mine clearance and war-risk insurance re-rating typically take 4-8 weeks after the last confirmed strike; strikes are ongoing as of early November.
- Precedent: 2019 tanker attacks kept traffic degraded for roughly 3 months before partial normalization, and this cycle has no de-escalation channel open.
14%
6 of 6 models answered · 64 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 6 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.