The effective ceasefire between the United States and Iran continues through November 8, 2026.
Regional tensions pose risk of direct military confrontation. Resolves as true if the United States launches no direct air or missile strikes impacting Iran through November 8, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel treats this as close to settled: the median is 97%.
They broadly agree, 5 points between Gemini at 99% and DeepSeek at 94%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 84%, so the models are 13 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 9 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +13 pts
- Volume
- $174K
The models are clearly more confident than traders risking real money: 97% against 84%.
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Direct US strikes on Iranian soil require extreme provocation or major war planning that will not materialize in 48 hours.
- Today is November 6, 2026, leaving only two days until the November 8 resolution cutoff.
- The US has avoided directly striking Iranian territory for decades, preferring proxy strikes in Syria, Iraq, or Yemen.
- A massive, unannounced escalatory strike on Iranian soil within the next 48 hours is statistically vanishingly rare.
99% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Resolution window is just two days out, with status quo holding and no imminent trigger reported.
- Only two days remain (Nov 6→8) with no current indication of planned US strikes on Iran.
- Ceasefire has held since the June 2025 conflict ended without renewed escalation reported in recent months.
- Main risk is a sudden Iran-linked incident (proxy attack, nuclear breakout move) triggering quick US retaliation within this short window.
97% -
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether an acute Iran-related escalation prompts Washington to strike within the remaining roughly 60 hours.
- The qualifying threshold is narrow: a U.S.-initiated air or surface missile strike must directly impact Iranian territory by Nov. 8.
- Historically, even severe U.S.-Iran crises usually produce proxies, interceptions, sanctions, or strikes outside Iran rather than direct homeland attacks.
- A confirmed Iranian strike causing major U.S. casualties, or an imminent nuclear-breakout warning, would sharply lower this assessment.
97% -
GrokxAI
US must launch a qualifying strike on Iran in the next ~48 hours.
- Only the US president and CENTCOM can order air or missile strikes that hit Iranian territory before 23:59 IRST 8 Nov.
- No such strike has occurred in any comparable 72-hour window since the current de-escalation; the base rate is near zero.
- A sudden Iranian attack on US forces or a high-casualty proxy incident would be the only development that could force an immediate response.
97% -
QwenAlibaba
Two days remain; a surprise direct strike on Iranian soil with no visible buildup is near-zero probability.
- The US has never conducted direct air/missile strikes on Iranian territory in the modern era, even during peak escalations like January 2020.
- With only ~48 hours to resolution, any qualifying strike would require visible force repositioning and political decision-making that would already be evident.
- A last-minute black-swan trigger (e.g., catastrophic attack on US forces attributed to Iran) is the only realistic path to 'No,' and even that would face decision-cycle…
97% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Only three days remain; no US strike on Iran is currently telegraphed or underway.
- US Central Command would need to execute and confirm a strike inside Iran by Nov 8; no carrier repositioning or strike package has been reported.
- The June 2025 Israel-Iran ceasefire and ongoing Oman-mediated talks have held, giving a base rate of no direct US strikes for months.
- The one development that would flip this is a US retaliation for an imminent Iranian attack on US forces, which has not materialized.
94%
6 of 6 models answered · 5 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying mil
Question sourced from Polymarket on 6 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.