Commercial tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz is halted due to military strikes.
Recent attacks targeted six vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in a major escalation. The event occurs if maritime authorities or major shipping associations officially suspend commercial tanker transits.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 15%.
They broadly agree, 21 points between Gemini at 28% and Qwen at 7%.
Nothing is settled until 14 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
High tension makes advisories likely, but full official suspensions are historically avoided.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202628% -
GPTOpenAI
Official suspension is a high bar; even serious attacks usually prompt rerouting, escorts, and risk premiums.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202627% -
GrokxAI
Tanker War/2019 attacks never produced official halt; US/allied escorts keep traffic moving.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Attacks hit 6 ships but tanker traffic historically continues; formal suspension needs insurers/authorities to act.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202612% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Full transit halt via Hormuz closure historically rare despite escalations; insurers reroute instead of formal suspension
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20268% -
QwenAlibaba
Even after attacks, shipping historically continues with war-risk premiums; full halt requires unprecedented state action
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 20267%
6 of 6 models answered · 21 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.