COP31 concludes with an agreement resolving carbon-market rules by November 20, 2026.
Negotiators open talks in Antalya on November 9 with key international carbon-market mechanisms still unsettled. Adoption of final rules by the summit's end would complete long-pending Paris Agreement articles.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 33%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 58% and Claude at 22%, 36 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 5 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
It hinges on whether Article 6 technical disputes can be packaged into a consensus text during Antalya’s final days.
- UNFCCC parties must adopt by consensus at COP31, with the scheduled conference ending November 20 after opening November 9.
- Article 6.2 and 6.4 rules have repeatedly slipped across COPs, but prior CMA decisions have steadily narrowed the unresolved issues.
- A public split over registries, authorization changes, or integrity safeguards late in the second week would sharply lower the odds.
58% -
GeminiGoogle
Consensus on Article 6.2 registries and 6.4 crediting standards usually fractures over integrity versus flexibility disputes.
- UNFCCC consensus requires all 198 parties to agree, and Article 6 talks failed to reach full closure at COP28 and COP29.
- EU and LMDC blocs remain deeply divided over authorization sequencing and oversight rigor for bilateral trading mechanisms.
- An agreed draft text by the end of week one with explicit registry confidentiality compromises would push odds above 65.
38% -
QwenAlibaba
Article 6 has been deferred at every COP since 2015; full resolution requires consensus on corresponding adjustments and 6.4 operationalization.
- Article 6.2/6.4 rules have been partially adopted at COP26–29 but authorization, corresponding adjustments, and share-of-proceeds disputes persist, making full closure…
- Turkey as COP31 host will push for a headline outcome, and political pressure to operationalize markets before 2030 NDC implementation adds urgency, raising odds above…
- A single blocking coalition (e.g., Brazil on corresponding adjustments or LDCs on adaptation finance share) can sink consensus; watch for a pre-COP ministerial…
37% -
GrokxAI
Article 6 carbon-market rules stay unfinished after two weeks in Antalya.
- Parties must adopt CMA decisions on 6.2/6.4 by the 20 Nov close; Turkey as host can only broker, not impose.
- Article 6 has slipped every COP since 2018; only partial texts emerged at Glasgow and Baku, so full closure sits well below that 30% hit rate.
- A last-minute US-China-EU package on corresponding adjustments would flip the odds, but none is queued before 9 Nov.
28% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether Antalya delegates close remaining Article 6.4/6.2 gaps by the Nov 20 closing date.
- COP conferences routinely overrun deadlines by 1-3 days and often punt contentious technical rules to subsequent sessional bodies.
- Article 6 carbon-market rules were only finalized at COP29 (2024) after years of delay, suggesting residual issues are the hardest and least likely to resolve quickly.
- A late-night compromise text adopted even a day or two past Nov 20 would still count if resolution window extends to Dec 5, raising odds somewhat.
22% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether Turkey can force a gavel on Article 6 text before Antalya closes on Nov 20.
- COP31 in Antalya runs Nov 9-20, 2026, and Article 6 rulebook talks have stalled since Glasgow 2021 over double-counting and registry design.
- The CMA plenary must adopt any text by Nov 20; host Turkey and co-facilitators can gavel through a package, but past COPs (Madrid 2019, Baku 2024) ended with rules…
- Base rate for closing a multi-year carbon-market rulebook at a single COP is low; the one thing that flips this is a pre-cooked ministerial text emerging by Nov 15.
22%
6 of 6 models answered · 36 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 5 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.