COP31 negotiators adopt formal agreed text on a fossil-fuel transition roadmap by November 20, 2026.
Previous negotiation rounds failed to set concrete transition targets heading into COP31 in Antalya. Consensus by the conference close would establish binding or formal UN guidance on phasing down fossil fuels.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 18%.
They broadly agree, 17 points between GPT at 27% and Claude at 10%.
Nothing is settled until 5 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
A consensus roadmap needs Saudi Arabia, Russia and other producer-state holdouts to accept language stronger than past COP outcomes.
- UNFCCC decisions are adopted by consensus, so a small group of fossil-fuel exporters can block prescriptive transition text.
- COP28 named a transition away from fossil fuels, but COP29-30 did not convert that into targets or a timetable.
- Odds rise sharply if the Antalya presidency circulates a compromise tying transition language to finance before ministerial week.
27% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
COP31 consensus text naming fossil fuels requires every petro-state to drop its veto in Antalya's final hours.
- COP28's Dubai text passed only after 'transitioning away' replaced 'phase-out'; COP29 in Baku then collapsed on the same fight, so the base rate for a formal roadmap is…
- Antalya's Turkish presidency must gavel a consensus by Nov 20, but Saudi Arabia, Russia and like-minded states can block any fossil-fuel language unilaterally.
- A pre-cooked G20 or EU-US bridging proposal landing before the ministerial segment is the one development that would move this above 40.
22% -
GeminiGoogle
UNFCCC consensus rules allow major petrostates to block binding transition schedules, making a formal roadmap highly improbable.
- Adopting formal text requires all 198 parties to agree, but Saudi Arabia and allied producers consistently veto quantifiable roadmaps.
- COP28 only managed vague 'transitioning away' language, and subsequent COPs have backtracked rather than advanced toward concrete targets.
- A coordinated US-EU-China push with heavy financial concessions to developing nations is the only path that could flip petrostate vetoes.
18% -
GrokxAI
Petrostates must accept consensus language on a specific fossil-fuel phase-down roadmap at COP31 close.
- COP28 produced only vague “transition away” text; later COPs added no timelines despite repeated pressure.
- Saudi Arabia, Russia and allies have consistently blocked concrete roadmaps; Turkey as host is unlikely to force the issue.
- Nov 20 is the probable scheduled close, and overruns are the norm, so even a late deal would miss the cutoff.
18% -
QwenAlibaba
Consensus among 190+ parties including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran on a concrete roadmap is the binding constraint.
- UNFCCC consensus means a single producer state (Saudi Arabia blocked 'phase-out' at COP28) can veto; no mechanism forces them to concede.
- Context states pre-COP31 rounds already failed to produce concrete targets, so negotiators arrive without a draft text—historically a strong predictor of no deal.
- A development that would shift this: a major producer (e.g., Saudi Arabia or UAE) signaling willingness in exchange for finance or adaptation concessions, as the UAE did…
14% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Consensus-based UNFCCC process has repeatedly failed to agree binding fossil-fuel language; COP31 likely follows same pattern.
- COP28 and COP29 both stalled on explicit fossil-fuel phase-out/phase-down text, showing persistent resistance from oil-producing states and some developing nations.
- All ~195 parties must agree by consensus before Nov 20 close, and petrostates like Saudi Arabia have consistently blocked binding roadmap language.
- A surprise bridging compromise (vague 'transition' language without binding targets) is more plausible than a true binding roadmap, which keeps odds low but not…
10%
6 of 6 models answered · 17 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 5 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.