COP31 results in an agreement on the EU-proposed greenhouse-gas emissions reduction package.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 16% by 13 Jan 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

16% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-01-13.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 27% — UNFCCC consensus rules mean petrostates and major developing nations can easily block or dilute binding EU mitigation targets. COP decisions require consensus among nearly 200 parties, historically resulting in watered-down voluntary language. Major emitters like China, India, and Saudi Arabia reliably resist EU-driven prescriptive mitigation timetables. A coordinated US-EU coalition with deep climate finance concessions would shift odds, but current appetite remains low.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 7% — COP agreements rarely adopt a single bloc's package wholesale; consensus usually dilutes specific proposals. COP negotiations require consensus among ~195 parties, and EU-specific packages historically get watered down or replaced by compromise text. Location of COP31 (Antarctica/Turkey dispute) and host-country influence over agenda could further delay or reshape outcomes before November 2026. A dramatic shift would require major emitters like China, India, and the US aligning early with EU terms, which hasn't happened in prior COPs.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 19% — Consensus COP decisions rarely adopt a major EU-designed mitigation package without dilution or a broader bargain. All UNFCCC parties must agree at COP31 in November; major emitters and fossil-fuel producers can block consensus. Recent COPs produced framework language and voluntary pledges, not binding new emissions-cut packages led by one bloc. A pre-COP deal pairing finance, adaptation, and softened fossil-fuel terms with EU concessions would materially raise the odds.

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Grok (xAI): 18% — COP consensus must adopt the EU package intact rather than a watered-down compromise text. UNFCCC decisions need near-unanimity; China, India and petro-states routinely block EU-style 90% cuts. No COP has ever adopted one bloc’s full package (Paris/Glasgow were bargains); one month left leaves little time to reverse that pattern. A sudden US-China joint statement backing the EU numbers would be the only development that could lift this above 30.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 14% — COP decisions need consensus, and a binding EU emissions package has never cleared that bar. COP31 runs November 2026 in Antalya; any formal adoption needs near-consensus from ~200 parties, including China, India, and Gulf oil producers. Precedent is bleak: COP26's coal 'phase-down' was watered to 'phase-down' from 'phase-out', and COP29 finance text was gavelled over Samoan objection. The EU's 2040 target of 90% cuts is still contested internally by Poland and Italy, so Brussels may not even arrive with a settled mandate.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 14% — COP consensus rules and US disengagement make formal adoption of a single-bloc proposal near-impossible. COP decisions require consensus among ~195 parties; no COP has formally adopted one bloc's package wholesale—outcomes are always negotiated compromises. The US under Trump has signaled withdrawal or minimal engagement from multilateral climate processes, removing a critical mass needed for consensus. Developing-country blocs (G77+China) historically resist binding emissions targets proposed by developed nations, and would likely block or dilute an EU-specific package.

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