Countries adopt a formal emissions-cutting agreement package at COP31 in Antalya.
EU officials are pushing for an emissions-reduction package at the COP31 summit scheduled for November 2026 in Antalya, Türkiye.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans no: the median is 35%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 57% and Claude at 15%, 42 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 11 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
It hinges on whether the EU can turn a political push into a consensus COP decision before the Antalya talks close.
- UNFCCC COP decisions require consensus among nearly 200 parties, giving major emitters and petro-states effective blocking power.
- COP28 adopted the UAE Consensus and COP29 produced a finance goal, so a formal package is more likely than not but far from routine.
- Odds would rise sharply if pre-COP ministerials produce agreed text on mitigation, finance, and a timeline before November 2026.
57% -
GeminiGoogle
Unanimous UNFCCC consensus on mandatory emissions targets routinely collapses under pushback from major fossil-fuel exporters.
- UNFCCC consensus rules allow petrostates like Saudi Arabia to block binding mitigation language as seen at COP28 and COP29.
- COP31 mitigation work programmes face fierce deadlock unless watered down into voluntary stocktake guidance rather than a formal package.
- A formal package succeeds only if the EU and vulnerable island states accept diluted transition language, which is unlikely to pass.
37% -
QwenAlibaba
Trump's Paris withdrawal and consensus rules make a substantive emissions package hard, but COPs almost always produce some formal text.
- US re-withdrawal from Paris under Trump removes the second-largest emitter and emboldens Saudi/Russian obstruction of binding language.
- COPs have produced a formal cover decision every year since 1995, but only Paris 2015 qualifies as a true emissions-cutting treaty; most outcomes are procedural or…
- A watered-down 'package' referencing NDC enhancement could squeak through by consensus, but calling it an emissions-cutting agreement requires China and India to accept…
37% -
GrokxAI
COP31 must produce a consensus pact that goes beyond Paris/NDC updates and names new emissions cuts.
- Consensus among 190+ parties, including petrostates, is required by late November 2026; EU cannot impose it.
- Base rate of a new formal emissions package (Paris 2015, Glasgow 2021) is roughly once a decade; COP28-29 stayed incremental.
- A COP30 NDC shortfall would raise pressure, but finance and adaptation usually crowd the agenda instead.
32% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether Türkiye can close a package in three weeks when COP presidencies rarely deliver binding outcomes.
- COP31 runs 9-20 Nov 2026 in Antalya; host Türkiye controls the gavel and has shown little appetite for a binding mitigation package.
- The EU can push, but any formal package needs consensus from ~190 parties, and petrostates have blocked mitigation language at COP29 and COP30.
- Base rate: only Paris 2015 and Glasgow 2021 produced formal packages; most COPs end with weak cover decisions, so this sits below the norm.
22% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether COP31 even convenes as planned and whether consensus-based UN process yields binding cuts, not just a framework.
- COP summits rarely produce 'formal emissions-cutting agreement packages'; most yield incremental texts, pledges or roadmaps rather than binding cuts, so base rate is low.
- Türkiye's hosting was contested for months and geopolitical/financial frictions (loss-and-damage funding, US disengagement) make strong consensus unlikely by Jan 2027.
- EU pushing hard is a modest positive signal, but historically EU ambition gets diluted in final COP texts via consensus with major emitters like China, India, Gulf…
15%
6 of 6 models answered · 42 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 13 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.