Formal waste-related pledges or implementation announcements are made at the COP31 World Leaders Summit by November 12, 2026.
COP31's thematic agenda includes Zero Waste during the World Leaders Summit on November 11-12, 2026. This requires an official multilateral pledge or announcement on waste reduction.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 78%.
They broadly agree, 27 points between Qwen at 89% and Claude at 62%.
Nothing is settled until 14 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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QwenAlibaba
A topic on the World Leaders Summit thematic agenda almost always yields at least one formal pledge; presidencies pre-negotiate these.
- COP presidencies secure commitments months ahead for themed summit days; Zero Waste being listed means Australia likely has signatories lined up.
- Base rate for any named theme at a COP World Leaders Summit producing zero formal output is very low—perhaps 5-8%—since empty themes embarrass the presidency.
- A last-minute collapse (e.g., key countries withdrawing) is the main risk, but with only days remaining, logistics are essentially locked in.
89% -
GeminiGoogle
Host presidencies invariably use earmarked summit thematic days to showcase choreographed multilateral declarations.
- Designating Zero Waste specifically during the high-level World Leaders Summit ensures a pre-negotiated declaration is ready.
- Similar COP initiatives like the Global Methane Pledge or COP28 declarations set a strong base rate above 80% for summit launches.
- Only a sudden geopolitical rupture among key co-signers like the EU or host nation would scuttle the planned announcement.
82% -
GPTOpenAI
A Zero Waste leaders-session theme makes at least one formal waste announcement more likely than not.
- COP presidencies and host governments commonly use leaders-week themes to launch voluntary coalitions, declarations, or funding packages.
- The host, UNFCCC secretariat, and participating governments have five days to convert the published November 11–12 agenda into text and sign-ons.
- Odds would fall sharply if the final leaders-program or COP31 presidency brief omits a named waste initiative or ministerial deliverable.
78% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
A waste pledge at the Leaders Summit is likely because the issue is already on the thematic agenda.
- COP presidencies routinely open high-level segments with declaratory pledges on negotiation topics, and waste is a formal COP31 theme.
- The main risk is slipping to the ministerial or technical segment, or staying in working group text rather than the Leaders Summit window.
77% -
GrokxAI
Hosts must deliver a scripted multilateral waste pledge in the Nov 11-12 WLS slot.
- COP presidencies lock WLS deliverables months out; Zero Waste is already on the published agenda so a named announcement is the default product.
- Recent COPs (28-30) produced themed leader pledges ~75% of the time when a topic was listed; this sits near that rate.
- Absence of any leaked draft or partner list by 7 Nov would drop the odds sharply.
72% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether COP31's Zero Waste thematic day yields an official multilateral pledge, not just speeches.
- COP agendas with named thematic days typically produce at least a declaration, coalition pledge, or initiative launch tied to that theme.
- Host country and UN partners (e.g., UNEP, Turkey or Australia depending on final host) have strong incentive to showcase deliverables by Nov 12.
- Risk is the announcement being vague political rhetoric rather than a formal pledge, which would make resolution ambiguous or negative.
62%
6 of 6 models answered · 27 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 7 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.