Governments and scientists agree on a delivery schedule for the IPCC AR7 reports before COP31.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 33% by 16 Nov 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

33% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-16.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 88% — IPCC plenary sessions face severe political pressure to align AR7 with the second Global Stocktake before COP31 opens. Developing nations and the EU cannot afford missing the 2028 stocktake input window, forcing compromise at IPCC-61/62. IPCC plenaries historically resolve procedural schedule impasses late rather than letting an entire cycle collapse entirely. A failure by China or Saudi Arabia to drop procedural objections to an accelerated timeline would shatter this timeline.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 28% — Hinges on IPCC plenary reaching consensus on AR7 timeline before COP31 opens in November 2026. IPCC bureau and governments have repeatedly delayed AR7 scoping/timeline decisions since 2023 due to funding and scope disputes. Only one month remains before COP31 (Nov 2026) with no reported breakthrough in the underlying scheduling impasse. Historically IPCC timelines slip and consensus often comes late or informally rather than as a clean pre-COP agreement.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 76% — An October IPCC decision can still settle dates, but COP31’s opening leaves only a month for any political dispute to persist. The IPCC Bureau, Working Groups and member governments must align on an AR7 calendar before COP31 begins on 10 November 2026. Assessment-cycle timetables are normally agreed years ahead; a visible late-cycle dispute lowers that historical expectation but not decisively. A failure of the next Bureau or Panel-level scheduling meeting to reconcile release dates would sharply reduce the chance.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 28% — IPCC plenary must lock AR7 report dates in the next four weeks. Only governments in plenary can adopt the schedule; no session is set before COP31 opens ~10 Nov. Prolonged deadlock plus the 4-week window sits well below the historic rate of last-minute IPCC timeline deals. An emergency extra plenary or COP-side political fix would be the only development that reverses this.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 14% — IPCC's own plenary, not COP31, sets AR7 timing, and the 2025 outline fight already pushed dates past this window. The IPCC Panel must formally adopt AR7 scoping and timelines at a plenary; the last such session (Bonn, June 2025) ended with the AR7 outline still contested. COP31 opens November 2026 in Antalya, but the UNFCCC has no authority to set IPCC delivery dates, so 'agreement before COP31' has no institutional mechanism. Base rate: AR6's cycle slipped roughly a year from its original plan; AR7's first scoping approval already lagged, so a pre-COP31 schedule lock is well below the norm.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 37% — Four weeks is too short to bridge a consensus gap that has persisted through multiple IPCC Bureau sessions. IPCC Panel decisions require consensus among 195 governments; the scheduling dispute has survived at least two Bureau meetings without resolution. The low bar—agreeing on *when* reports arrive, not delivering them—helps, but the core tension (compressed timeline vs. scientific rigor) is structural, not procedural. A last-minute compromise at a pre-COP contact group is possible but would need a Bureau session or extraordinary Panel meeting convened before Nov 16, for which no…

Governments and scientists agree on a delivery schedule for the IPCC AR7 reports before COP31.

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