Governor Kathy Hochul advances state policy to end fossil gas mandates and expand heat pumps.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 42% by 11 Oct 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

42% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-10-11.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 74% — Passing key NY HEAT Act provisions during the 2027 budget cycle aligns with Hochul's past proposals and legislative momentum. Hochul already backed repealing the utility 100-foot gas mandate in her 2024 budget, showing prior executive commitment. The NY Senate repeatedly passed the NY HEAT Act; Assembly resistance has steadily eroded under progressive climate pressure. A failure in the 2027 legislative session to include gas rule rollbacks in the final state budget would disprove this trajectory.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 17% — Depends on whether Hochul signs an executive order or legislation phasing out gas mandates before late 2027. Hochul has repeatedly delayed or watered down the all-electric building mandate under utility and labor pressure, showing reluctance to act aggressively. NY's gas stove ban in new buildings already faces legal and legislative pushback, making a broader fossil-gas mandate end or heat-pump expansion order less likely soon. A major political shift, like a primary challenge or utility cost crisis forcing action, would be the main thing that could change this odds upward.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — The odds hinge on whether Hochul can turn New York’s existing building-electrification agenda into binding statewide rules or law. Hochul, the Legislature, and state agencies must act before October 2027; an executive order offers the fastest route. New York already enacted the 2023 all-electric new-building law, with major phase-in dates beginning in 2026 and 2029. Litigation, affordability concerns, or a Legislature unwilling to extend mandates to existing buildings would cut the chance sharply.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 42% — Hochul must still hold office and sign an EO or bill ending gas-hookup mandates while expanding heat-pump incentives. NY Senate/Assembly remain Democratic but gas-union and utility opposition has already delayed similar 2023–25 bills past session deadlines. Base rate for climate EOs in an election year is low; Hochul faces Nov 2026 voters in three weeks and historically avoids late-term mandates. A post-election lame-duck EO or 2027 budget rider would flip the forecast, but neither has precedent under her tenure.

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DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 12% — Hochul would much rather fund heat pumps than ban gas; no bill or order forcing the mandate is on the table. No pending bill mandates heat pumps statewide; the Climate Action Council scoping plan only recommends, and Hochul has not signaled an executive order. The 2023 'all-electric buildings' budget fight and 2024 congestion-pricing reversal show she defers to cost and upstate-legislature politics over climate groups. Earliest trigger is the 2027 legislative session ending June, which gives only nine months before deadline for a first-ever gas-mandate bill to pass both chambers.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 42% — Hochul has already moved toward building electrification but faces a Republican legislature and utility pushback that slows mandates. NY's 2024 budget already included a gas-ready building code pilot and Hochul's 2025 State of the State referenced heat pump targets, so the policy direction is set but a… The NY State Assembly and Senate have Democratic supermajorities that generally support electrification, but the 2026-27 session faces utility rate concerns and moderate… A targeted EO expanding heat pump subsidies or setting a state target is plausible (~60% chance), but a full 'end fossil gas mandates' order is less likely given Con…

Governor Kathy Hochul advances state policy to end fossil gas mandates and expand heat pumps.

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