Houthi military forces enter Aden, Yemen by December 31, 2026.
Measures whether Ansar Allah forces breach and enter defined districts of the internationally recognized government's southern stronghold.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 4%.
They broadly agree, 4 points between GPT at 7% and Gemini at 3%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 23%, so the models are 19 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -19 pts
- Moved this week
- -3 pts
- Since we asked
- -3 pts
- Volume
- $227K
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 4% against 23%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether Houthis can break the southern front and sustain even a brief operation inside core Aden districts.
- The Houthis must move forces past entrenched anti-Houthi lines around Lahj, Dhale and Aden within roughly 11 weeks.
- Since their 2015 expulsion, Houthi forces have not retaken Aden despite years of war; the 2022 truce lowered front-line tempo.
- A collapse of Presidential Leadership Council or STC defenses, or a major Saudi/UAE disengagement, would sharply raise the odds.
7% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Houthis would need to break the current frontlines and Saudi-backed ceasefire dynamics to reach Aden, a major escalation.
- Aden sits far from current Houthi-held front lines (around Marib, Taiz, Hodeidah), requiring sustained offensive through multiple contested governorates.
- Since 2015 Houthis have never held Aden despite years of civil war, and current truce-era dynamics favor low-intensity conflict over major offensives.
- A collapse of the fragile truce/negotiations or a major Houthi offensive breakthrough in Lahj/Abyan would be the key trigger to watch.
6% -
GrokxAI
Houthi ground forces must cross hundreds of km of STC/IRG-held south in 11 weeks.
- Houthis would have to launch and sustain a multi-governorate offensive from current northern lines by 31 Dec, overcoming STC, IRG and possible Saudi/UAE air cover.
- Fronts have been frozen since 2022; no comparable southern breakthrough has occurred in a decade, and 77 days is far below historical campaign timelines.
- A sudden STC collapse or unopposed Houthi convoy into Craiter/Tawahi would flip the call, but neither is visible now.
4% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Houthi forces would need to cross ~200km of hostile STC-held terrain and storm a fortified port city in under 11 weeks.
- Aden is defended by UAE-backed STC forces with air support; Houthis have not taken a major southern city since 2015 and failed at Marib in 2021-22.
- Houthi offensives historically stall for months on frontlines; no staging buildup toward Shabwa/Abyan is reported as of October 2026.
- A sudden STC-Islah collapse or Houthi breakthrough at Bayhan would be the signal to watch, but neither is imminent.
4% -
QwenAlibaba
Houthis would need to break through multiple STC/IRG defensive lines across Lahj or Dhale in just 2.5 months—a feat they haven't achieved since 2015.
- Front lines have been largely static since the April 2022 truce; no Houthi ground offensive has approached Aden's perimeter in over a decade.
- STC forces backed by UAE maintain layered defenses in Lahj and Dhale; a breakthrough requires simultaneous collapse of multiple brigades with no precedent since 2015.
- Only a political deal or sudden southern institutional collapse could change this, but no credible negotiations toward such an outcome are visible as of October 2026.
4% -
GeminiGoogle
Houthis lack the ground capacity and southern alignment to overcome STC defenses and push 100+ km to Aden in ten weeks.
- Taking Aden requires smashing through heavily armed Southern Transitional Council frontlines in Lahij and Abyan within 2.5 months.
- The frontlines around southern Yemen have been static since 2015, making a rapid blitzkrieg across hostile southern terrain near impossible.
- A catastrophic, sudden collapse of the UAE-backed STC alongside complete cessation of Saudi air deterrence would be needed.
3%
6 of 6 models answered · 4 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market
Question sourced from Polymarket on 15 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.