Humans land on the surface of Mars before 2035.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 8% by 7 Oct 2036. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

8% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2036-10-07.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 8% — Orbital mechanics limit Mars windows to every 26 months, leaving only the 2031 and 2033 transfer windows feasible before 2035. NASA's Artemis program prioritizes lunar surface operations through the late 2020s, pushing crewed Mars architectures past 2035. SpaceX requires uncrewed Mars landings and demonstrated orbital refilling at scale before human transit, which is unlikely before 2031. Successful uncrewed Starship landings in the 2028 or 2031 windows would dramatically compress this timeline.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 3% — SpaceX and NASA both lack a flight-proven crewed Mars lander, and ~9 years is far too short to close that gap. No uncrewed Starship Mars landing has occurred yet, and crewed missions require years of validated uncrewed precursors plus life support, radiation shielding, and EDL… Historical base rate for first-ever crewed landing on a new planetary body is near zero within a single decade given the scale of engineering, funding, and political… NASA's Artemis is still focused on lunar return and budget pressures favor Moon-first; a dramatic change like a fully funded Mars crash program with early 2030s timeline…

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 9% — It turns on whether NASA or SpaceX can fund, certify, and fly a Mars-class crew system within nine years. NASA’s official human-Mars target remains the late 2030s or 2040s, after Artemis lunar operations prove hardware and procedures. SpaceX has ambitious Mars plans, but no crewed Starship orbital flight, propellant-transfer demonstration, or Mars landing campaign is yet complete. A successful high-cadence Starship refueling program and a funded 2030–34 crew architecture would sharply raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 22% — Only SpaceX Starship could do it; NASA/China are 2039+. Crewed Mars needs a 2033 or 2034 window after uncrewed landings in 2028/30; Starship must prove EDL, ISRU and 6-month life support by then. Apollo-to-Moon was 8 yrs but Mars delta-v, radiation and thin-atmosphere landing have no precedent; first-of-kind vehicles historically slip 50-100%. A successful uncrewed Starship touchdown in the 2026 or 2028 window would be the single update that most raises this number.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 8% — This turns on whether a crewed Mars landing happens within roughly one decade, which no program is currently funded or scheduled to do. NASA's Artemis is Moon-focused through the 2030s, and its own Mars architecture documents target the late 2030s or 2040s, not before 2035. SpaceX's Starship has not yet reached orbit reliably, let alone demonstrated Mars transit, entry, descent, or surface life support for crew. No agency has a funded, scheduled crewed Mars surface mission; the historical base rate for such firsts slipping a decade or more is very high.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 5% — SpaceX is the only plausible actor, but in-orbit refueling and Mars EDL remain undemonstrated as of late 2026. Starship has not yet demonstrated in-orbit refueling, a prerequisite for any Mars mission; each prior SpaceX milestone has slipped 1-3 years. The 2033 transfer window is the last viable launch opportunity; that requires a crewed vehicle ready by ~2032, leaving ~6 years to solve life support, radiation… No crewed vehicle has traveled beyond low Earth orbit since Apollo 17 in 1972; the base rate for first-time deep-space crewed programs completing on schedule is near…

Humans land on the surface of Mars before 2035.

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