IAEA inspectors regain access to monitor Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles.
Iran has denied inspectors access to its nuclear facilities, obscuring stockpile levels. An official IAEA report confirming physical inspection access would resolve this.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 20%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 57% and Gemini at 14%, 43 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Three months allows a negotiated access deal, but Iran has repeatedly used inspections as leverage.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202657% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Talks ongoing but Iran-IAEA standoff post-strikes deep; access unlikely to fully resolve within 3 months
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202625% -
GrokxAI
Iran treats IAEA access as leverage; no JCPOA-style deal likely in ~3 months.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Iran has kept inspectors out since 2025 strikes; no deal or IAEA-Iran agreement is on the table before Dec 2026.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
QwenAlibaba
Iran has consistently blocked access; no credible negotiation pathway visible in 3 months.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
GeminiGoogle
A comprehensive inspection deal within three months is improbable given deep diplomatic deadlock and tensions.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202614%
6 of 6 models answered · 43 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.