IMF Portwatch reports Strait of Hormuz 7-day average ship transits at or above 60 before 2027.
Chokepoint maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf has faced disruptions. Resolves as yes if IMF Portwatch records a 7-day moving average of 60 or more daily vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026.
Across 4 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 51%.
They do not agree: Claude puts it at 75% and DeepSeek at 30%, 45 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 12%, so the models are 39 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 31 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +39 pts
- Since we asked
- -6 pts
- Volume
- $15.7M
The models are sharply more confident than traders risking real money: 51% against 12%.
What each one said
-
ClaudeAnthropic
Hormuz traffic historically fluctuates near/above 60; long window to Dec 2026 favors yes
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202675% -
GPTOpenAI
With over three months left, normalization from disruptions makes a 60-transit 7-day rebound plausible.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202671% -
GeminiGoogle
Traffic typically hovers in the low-to-mid 50s; a Q4 seasonal surge could briefly breach 60 before year-end.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202631% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Hormuz 7-day average transits have been running well below 60 amid regional disruptions; recovery to 60+ by year-end is unlikely.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202630% -
GrokxAIno answer this run x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
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QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
4 of 6 models answered · 45 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.