Iran grants IAEA inspectors access to restricted nuclear facilities to verify enriched uranium stockpiles.
The IAEA reported that Iran has continued denying monitors access, leaving enriched materials unverified. It resolves as yes if the IAEA confirms inspectors have resumed physical verification at the sites.
Across 5 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 22%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 57% and DeepSeek at 18%, 39 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Mar 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Six months allows a diplomatic deal, but access has been repeatedly withheld amid high political stakes.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202657% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Political stalemate persists but ~18-month window allows possible negotiated deal or partial access
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202630% -
GeminiGoogle
Iran maintains IAEA access restrictions as key diplomatic leverage absent major sanctions relief.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
GrokxAI
Years-long stalemate as leverage; 6mo too short for deal or crisis forcing full physical access
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202619% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Iran has refused access for years; no deal or pressure shift in next 6 months makes compliance unlikely.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
5 of 6 models answered · 39 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.