Israel initiates a major closure of its civilian airspace by September 30, 2026.
Regional tensions raise the risk of severe commercial aviation disruptions. Resolves as yes if Israel suspends commercial aviation across all or a majority of its civilian airspace before October 1, 2026.
Across 5 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 12%.
They broadly agree, 12 points between GPT at 18% and Gemini at 6%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 100%, so the models are 88 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 1 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -88 pts
- Moved this week
- +3 pts
- Since we asked
- +3 pts
- Volume
- $3.6M
The models are sharply less confident than traders risking real money: 12% against 100%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
Broad nationwide closures are rare absent imminent major conflict; only 17 days remain.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Short window; requires major escalation like June 2025-style war to trigger closure
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202613% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Full airspace closures are rare and brief; current tensions haven't produced one, and only 16 days remain.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202612% -
GrokxAI
Rare outside acute missile threats; 16-day window too short without an imminent strike.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 20269% -
GeminiGoogle
A 16-day window leaves low probability for an escalatory event triggering a nationwide airspace shutdown.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20266% -
QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
5 of 6 models answered · 12 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from I
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.