Israeli airspace closes by December 31, 2026.
Escalating regional conflict threatens commercial flights. Resolves if the Tel Aviv FIR is shut via an official NOTAM or government directive before 2027.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 21%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 38% and Qwen at 6%, 32 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 36%, so the models are 15 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -15 pts
- Moved this week
- +4 pts
- Volume
- $372K
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 21% against 36%.
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Closure hinges on direct missile exchanges with Iran or Hezbollah triggering an Israel Airports Authority nationwide airspace shutdown.
- Israel closed the Tel Aviv FIR briefly during April and October 2024 Iranian strikes, showing low institutional hesitation.
- A seven-week window until year-end 2026 keeps absolute base rates moderate, though regional volatility remains historically elevated.
- A formal ceasefire or major de-escalation between Israel and regional proxies would sharply drive this probability down.
38% -
GrokxAI
A major inbound barrage that forces CAA Israel to issue a general commercial NOTAM in the next 53 days.
- Only CAA/MoD NOTAMs that suspend all commercial ops in LLLL count; prior Iran salvos (Apr/Oct 2024) produced hours-long closures.
- High-tension years have seen 2–3 such events; 7 remaining weeks therefore imply a ~25–35 % hit rate if tensions hold.
- A ceasefire or no new strike collapses the odds; a fresh Iran–Israel exchange would push them well above 50.
28% -
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether fighting escalates enough to make Israel’s aviation regulator suspend the entire Tel Aviv FIR, not just restrict routes.
- CAA Israel and the security cabinet could act immediately; fewer than eight weeks remain through December 31, 2026.
- Israel fully closed its airspace during the April 2024 Iranian attack, but broad FIR shutdowns remain uncommon outside acute missile threats.
- A sustained direct Israel-Iran exchange or major inbound missile salvo would sharply raise the odds of an official all-airspace NOTAM.
27% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether active regional escalation (Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis) triggers a full Tel Aviv FIR shutdown before year-end 2026.
- Israel has closed airspace briefly multiple times in 2024-2025 during missile exchanges with Iran, showing this is not a rare event.
- Short window (under 2 months) means only an acute escalation already brewing would trigger a full NOTAM closure in time.
- Historically closures have been brief (hours to days) but still count under resolution criteria, so any flare-up could trigger Yes.
15% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether Iran or Hezbollah strikes trigger a full FIR shutdown in the next seven weeks, not whether tensions merely persist.
- Israel has closed its airspace only during active missile exchanges (April and October 2024), each time for hours, not weeks, and reopened within a day.
- A qualifying closure needs an official NOTAM suspending commercial aviation across LLLL; Ben Gurion has stayed open through most of the 2023-2026 war, so the base rate…
- The trigger would be a direct Iranian ballistic barrage or a major attack on Israeli airports; absent that, Israel prefers keeping the FIR open for military and…
12% -
QwenAlibaba
Full FIR closure requires an overwhelming attack or government decision; Israel has kept LLLL open through every 2024-25 escalation.
- Israel maintained LLLL operations through the April 2024 Iranian barrage and subsequent exchanges, closing Ben Gurion for hours at most.
- A qualifying closure requires a blanket NOTAM suspending all commercial traffic across the FIR—an unprecedented step for a country with functioning air defenses.
- The ~7-week window is short; the most likely mover would be a multi-front saturation attack overwhelming Arrow/David's Sling, which remains a low-probability tail event.
6%
6 of 6 models answered · 32 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, includi
Question sourced from Polymarket on 8 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.