Japan's MMX mission successfully collects and returns samples containing Mars dust.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 41% by 18 Oct 2031. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

41% — the median of 5 frontier models, resolving by 2031-10-18.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 48% — MMX must launch by 2026 to return by 2031, leaving zero schedule margin given interplanetary launch windows. MMX slipped its launch to 2026; missing that target window pushes Mars arrival and return well past the late-2031 resolution deadline. JAXA has returned asteroid samples via Hayabusa, but Phobos sampling and Mars-orbit escape present significantly steeper technical hurdles. A successful 2026 launch and nominal landing on Phobos would quickly move odds above 75% given strong dust-deposition models.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 10% — Hinges on MMX launching ~2026, landing on Phobos, sampling, and returning by Oct 2031 with detectable Mars dust. MMX launch slipped to FY2026 and sample return is targeted ~2031, leaving almost no margin before the resolution date. Interplanetary sample-return missions (Hayabusa2, OSIRIS-REx) routinely face delays, and even success doesn't guarantee detectable Mars dust in regolith. Scientific consensus that Phobos regolith contains Mars ejecta is plausible but unproven; analysis could be inconclusive even if samples return on time.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 41% — MMX must launch on schedule, survive Phobos sampling, return intact, and find identifiable Martian material in a tiny sample. JAXA plans a 2026 launch and 2031 Earth return, leaving little schedule margin before the October 2031 cutoff. Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx show sample return can work, but MMX adds Mars-orbit operations, landing, ascent, and return. Dust-transfer models support the science case, but confirmation depends on abundance and unambiguous Mars-derived isotopic/mineral signatures.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 38% — MMX must launch in the 2026 window, return Phobos soil by mid-2031, and lab analysis must confirm Martian ejecta. JAXA needs a 2026 launch, 2029 Phobos sampling and ~Aug 2031 Earth return so analysis can finish before 18 Oct 2031. Hayabusa2 succeeded but MMX adds Mars capture plus two landings, dropping expected return success from ~80% to ~55%. Models predict 10–100% Mars dust in Phobos regolith; if samples arrive, detection is likely, yet a missed 2026 window kills the 2031 deadline.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 42% — This hinges on whether MMX launches on its repeatedly slipped schedule and returns samples in time for analysis to confirm Martian dust. MMX launch has slipped to FY2026 (no earlier than late 2026), with sample return currently projected for FY2031, right at the resolution edge. Resolution requires a Phobos landing, sample acquisition, Earth return, and then detection of Martian dust in the sample, a compound chain where each step must succeed. Precedent is punishing: no sample-return mission to Mars or its moons has ever been completed, and Phobos dust abundance at the landing site is model-dependent, not…

Japan's MMX mission successfully collects and returns samples containing Mars dust.

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