JD Vance wins the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
JD Vance is viewed as a leading prospective candidate for the 2028 race. Resolves to yes if major news networks project him as the winner.
Across 5 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 22%.
They broadly agree, 9 points between Claude at 27% and GPT at 18%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 18%, so the models are 4 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 8 Nov 2028, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +4 pts
- Moved this week
- -2 pts
- Volume
- $18.6M
The models are slightly more confident than traders risking real money: 22% against 18%.
What each one said
-
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on Vance securing the GOP nomination then winning a competitive general election roughly two years out.
- Vance is the clear early GOP frontrunner as sitting VP, giving him maybe 55-65% odds of the nomination.
- General election outcomes two years out are highly uncertain; incumbent-party fatigue and midterm dynamics could cut against him.
- Trump's approval trajectory, economic conditions in 2028, and any primary challenger emergence would most shift this estimate.
27% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Vance must first win a contested GOP primary as an incumbent-adjacent heir with Trump still dominating the party.
- Sitting VPs historically win their party's nomination but lose the general more often than not: Nixon 1960, Humphrey 1968, Gore 2000 lost; Bush 1988 and Biden 2020 won.
- Vance needs Trump's continued blessing through 2027-28, but Trump's health and willingness to anoint an heir are the key unknowns; no incumbent is on the ballot.
- Democrats need only a 2-3 point national swing from 2024, and the out-party has won the popular vote in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections.
27% -
GeminiGoogle
Vance has the strongest path to the 2028 GOP nomination as sitting VP, but must survive general election headwinds and Trump's term.
- Sitting VPs seeking their party's nod win the primary roughly 70% of the time, putting his odds of nomination near 45-50%.
- General elections remain coin flips, and mid-term backlashes or an unpopular second Trump administration suppress Republican turnout.
- A Trump endorsement guarantees him the base, but an economic downturn by 2028 would cripple his crossover appeal in swing states.
22% -
GrokxAI
Vance must first lock the GOP nomination two years out, then win a polarized general.
- GOP voters and Trump’s endorsement decide the primary by mid-2028; no sitting VP has been nominated since 1988 and fields fragment fast.
- Base rate for nominated VPs winning the White House is ~40% (Bush 41 yes, Nixon/Gore/Harris no); 2028 fundamentals sit near even.
- A Trump late endorsement or a Democratic nominee collapse would move this most.
22% -
GPTOpenAI
His odds hinge on securing the Republican nomination in an open post-Trump contest and then holding a competitive general election.
- He must first win GOP delegates and the 2028 convention; a vice president has an edge, but succession nominees often face serious primaries.
- Since 1952, sitting or former vice presidents have won only a minority of open presidential races, and any nominee faces near-even general-election odds.
- A clear 2027–28 endorsement from Trump plus strong approval and unified GOP support would materially raise this estimate.
18% -
QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 6 Nov 2026–
5 of 6 models answered · 9 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 6 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.