Marco Rubio ceases to be a member of the Trump administration before 2027.
Cabinet turnover is a frequent subject of political forecasting. Resolves if Rubio leaves the Trump administration or his departure is officially announced by December 31, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 8%.
They broadly agree, 8 points between Claude at 12% and Gemini at 4%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 16%, so the models are 8 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -8 pts
- Moved this week
- +7 pts
- Volume
- $158K
The models are slightly less confident than traders risking real money: 8% against 16%.
What each one said
-
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether Rubio, now Secretary of State and NSA, faces a scandal or rift before 2027.
- Rubio has been a stable, high-profile figure with expanded influence (dual SecState/NSA roles), showing strong standing with Trump.
- Cabinet turnover base rate for a sitting term is low absent scandal, and no major controversy currently threatens Rubio.
- Main risk is unexpected health issue, scandal, or falling out with Trump, none of which appear imminent as of Nov 2026.
12% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Only ~8 weeks remain, and Rubio has shown no exit signal while Trump prizes Cabinet stability into midterms.
- Rubio is simultaneously Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor, a dual role Trump has publicly praised and shown no sign of unwinding.
- Cabinet-level departures in a president's first two years are rare; post-2024 Trump firings have hit lower-profile officials, not Senate-confirmed principals.
- The one thing that flips this is a Rubio-Trump rupture over Ukraine, Venezuela, or a 2026 personnel purge, which would surface as a resignation announcement before Dec…
12% -
QwenAlibaba
Only ~8 weeks remain; Rubio has been stable as Secretary of State with no public friction signaling imminent exit.
- Trump's second-term cabinet has seen less churn than the first; Rubio has not been linked to any credible departure reporting.
- An 8-week window is short—base rate for any single cabinet member exiting in such a span is roughly 5-7%, slightly elevated here by Trump's impulsiveness.
- A sudden policy clash (e.g., over a peace deal or sanctions reversal) or a 2028 campaign signal would be the most likely trigger, but neither appears imminent.
9% -
GPTOpenAI
With only 55 days left, a public exit is unlikely absent a sudden scandal, health event, or Trump-led reshuffle.
- Trump or Rubio would need to announce a resignation, firing, or reassignment before December 31; no routine transition compels it.
- Cabinet turnover over a full term is common, but departures within a final two-month window are much rarer without visible precipitating events.
- A credible report of a foreign-policy rupture, ethics inquiry, or planned 2027 Senate run would sharply raise the odds.
7% -
GrokxAI
Whether Rubio is fired or resigns in the remaining 55 days of 2026.
- Trump almost never ousts a sitting Secretary of State in a lame-duck window after midterms unless a public rupture already exists.
- Historical two-month exit rate for U.S. secretaries of state is ~4%; Rubio has no announced scandal or replacement search.
- Only an immediate, on-the-record clash with Trump would move the number; none is visible as of 6 Nov.
7% -
GeminiGoogle
With under two months remaining until 2027, Rubio's high-profile post has established momentum that precludes a sudden rupture.
- Only 55 days remain until the resolution date, leaving almost no operational runway for a sudden dismissal or voluntary resignation.
- First-term Trump Cabinet members rarely departed before their second year, with Tillerson surviving until March 2018.
- A massive, uncontainable policy clash over Ukraine or China is the sole plausible catalyst for an immediate firing in this short window.
4%
6 of 6 models answered · 8 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 6 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.