Ministers approve the North Sea Jackdaw gas project before October 2026.
Jackdaw was reported set for approval in mid-September 2026. Official ministerial consent announced by September 30, 2026, counts as approved.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 78%.
They broadly agree, 16 points between DeepSeek at 88% and Claude at 72%.
Nothing is settled until 14 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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DeepSeekDeepSeek
Reported set for approval mid-Sept 2026; regulator-backed projects usually clear within weeks.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202688% -
QwenAlibaba
Reported mid-Sept approval; only formal ministerial consent needed within days.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202688% -
GPTOpenAI
Reported mid-September approval timing and a short, explicit consent window make timely sign-off likely.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202682% -
GeminiGoogle
Reports indicate approval is imminent, though regulatory and legal timing carries modest risk of slipping past September.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202674% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Jackdaw already has consent history and reports point to imminent approval near this deadline
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
GrokxAI
Mid-Sept approval reports plus 16 days left; last-minute legal or political delays still possible.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202672%
6 of 6 models answered · 16 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.