NASA and SpaceX launch a mission to the International Space Station on or before October 13, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 43% by 15 Oct 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

43% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-10-15.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 44% — Launches scheduled NET on a date rarely pull forward, so success hinges entirely on hitting the exact October 13 window without slips. Launches targeting NET dates slip past day one over 50% of the time due to Cape weather rules, hardware checks, or ISS traffic. With only five days to go, moving the date earlier is virtually impossible, leaving exactly one target day to achieve launch. A favorable 48-hour Space Launch Delta 45 weather forecast above 80% go would push probability into the 60s.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 42% — Hinges on whether the NET Oct 13 date holds or slips past it given typical Crew/Cargo Dragon scheduling slips. NASA/SpaceX ISS missions frequently slip days to weeks due to weather, vehicle readiness, or ISS traffic scheduling. The question requires launch on or BEFORE Oct 13, but Oct 13 is listed as the NET (no earlier than) date, making a same-day or earlier launch unlikely. Base rate for NET-date launches occurring exactly on or before the NET date is low since NET implies earliest possible, not expected, date.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 71% — Whether the final readiness reviews clear a Crew Dragon/Falcon 9 launch before the narrow October 13 cutoff. NASA and SpaceX must complete vehicle, crew, ISS traffic, range, and weather approvals within five days. Crew Dragon missions usually launch near their planned windows, but late processing or weather frequently causes multi-day slips. A confirmed Dragon rollout, completed static fire, and favorable Cape Canaveral forecast would materially raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 42% — NET Oct 13 target five days out; SpaceX ISS flights rarely advance and often slip a day or more. NASA/SpaceX must green-light a Falcon 9/Dragon stack for a 13 Oct window (or earlier); weather/tech holds typically decide 48 h prior. Falcon 9 ISS missions historically fly on first NET date ~45 % of the time; crewed/cargo conservatism and Oct weather put this case slightly below that. A 24 h weather forecast clearing the Cape or an unannounced date pull-forward would most raise the odds.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 12% — A five-day slip from a NET date is routine for ISS cargo/crew flights, and the window is already razor-thin. SpaceX and NASA must hit a pad turnaround at KSC/LC-39A or SLC-40 within days; weather and range conflicts routinely push NET dates. ISS launches slip ~40-50% of the time within a week of NET, driven by range, weather, or vehicle processing, not failure. The Oct 13 NET is only 5 days out with no public L-2 milestone confirmed, so a slip past Oct 13 is more likely than not.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 88% — Crew-11 is a routine operational mission; the main risk is a short weather or technical scrub pushing past the 13th. Crew Dragon operational missions since Crew-1 (2020) have launched within ~2 weeks of target >90% of the time. A single weather or range scrub could push the launch 24-48 hours, but the window is tight enough that one scrub likely still fits by Oct 13. A multi-day stand-down from a technical anomaly (like the Crew-9 booster swap in 2024) would be the main way this misses; that's uncommon but not rare.

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