NASA and SpaceX launch the ISS resupply mission carrying Roll-Out Solar Arrays on October 13, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 60% by 20 Oct 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

60% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-10-20.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 72% — Launches on scheduled target dates predominantly hinge on Cape weather and instantaneous launch window constraints. Falcon 9 resupply missions hold an approximate 70-75% on-time launch rate on target day without scrubs. SpaceX and NASA face strict orbital rendezvous windows to ISS leaving zero room for in-count technical delays. A favorable 45th Weather Squadron forecast or early hold call would swing odds sharply above 90% or to zero.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 12% — Hinges on whether the exact Oct 13 date holds given typical ISS cargo launch slips. NASA/SpaceX ISS resupply launches routinely slip days to weeks due to weather, vehicle readiness, or station traffic. The question asks specifically about launching on Oct 13, not within a window, making exact-date hits less likely historically. A scrub announcement or new target date before Oct 20 would resolve this false, which is the common pattern for these missions.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 57% — Whether the October 13 attempt clears routine Falcon 9, Dragon, weather, and ISS-traffic constraints without a slip. NASA and SpaceX must complete launch-day readiness and secure an ISS approach window by October 20. Cargo Dragon launches commonly slip days to weeks from their nominal dates, but a seven-day resolution window absorbs minor holds. A confirmed Falcon 9 static-fire issue, Dragon processing fault, or ISS scheduling conflict would sharply reduce the chance.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 42% — Whether Falcon 9 CRS-33 actually lifts off today versus a weather/range/tech slip. NASA/SpaceX set 13 Oct 2026 as the NET for the iROSA cargo flight; the window is a single day. Falcon 9 ISS resupply first-attempt success historically sits near 45 %; weather and Eastern Range holds routinely push 1–3 days. A 24-hour delay announcement before T-0 would drop the probability to near zero; none is assumed yet.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 62% — It's launch day; the only question is whether weather or a scrub pushes it past October 20. SpaceX and NASA have the vehicle on the pad and a same-day window, so the hardware and range are ready. Falcon 9 cargo launches historically scrub ~30-40% of the time, but a one-week slip buffer absorbs most single scrubs. A range violation, weather violation, or ISS conjunction would push it past the 20th; that's the main failure mode.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 74% — A 7-day window absorbs most scrub risk, but weather or a pad anomaly could still push past Oct 20. SpaceX Falcon 9 has a >99% mission success rate and CRS launches rarely slip more than 2-3 days from target. October is peak hurricane season at Cape Canaveral; a tropical system could close the range for several days. If a scrub occurs on Oct 13, the 7-day resolution window likely accommodates one or two retry attempts, but a second scrub plus weather could exhaust it.

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