Official investigators formally attribute the September 13 Strait of Hormuz commercial vessel attack to Iran or affiliated forces.
A U.S. commercial vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on September 13, 2026. Resolution requires an official government or naval investigation publicly identifying the responsible party.
Across 4 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 60%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 82% and Claude at 22%, 60 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 14 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
Hormuz maritime strikes are overwhelmingly Iranian, and CENTCOM naval inquiries typically publish within 30 days.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202682% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
US/UK typically attribute Gulf tanker attacks within days; 30-day window is ample, but attribution may stay unnamed.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202662% -
GPTOpenAI
Rapid public attribution is plausible if evidence is clear, but official investigations often remain cautious.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202657% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Formal attribution investigations typically take months, unlikely within a mere 4-week window
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
GrokxAIno answer this run x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
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QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
4 of 6 models answered · 60 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.