Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the UN General Assembly by video during the high-level debate.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 94% by 3 Oct 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

94% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-10-03.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 96% — The General Assembly has already formally authorized Abbas's prerecorded video address, making broadcast routine. Pre-recorded addresses approved by formal UNGA resolution almost invariably air as scheduled during the high-level debate. Only sudden death, severe incapacitation of Abbas, or a catastrophic diplomatic shift could disrupt the broadcast before October 3. Given that logistical and diplomatic hurdles were cleared by the vote, delivery failure base rates for pre-approved UN videos are under 5%.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 88% — Whether UNGA formally airs Abbas's approved video during the September 2026 high-level debate as authorized. UNGA already approved the video mechanism for a second consecutive year, clearing the main procedural hurdle. Last year's precedent (2024, 2025) shows the video format was successfully delivered without last-minute reversal. Main risk is scheduling slippage past Oct 3 cutoff or a US visa/political dispute disrupting the plan, but that's a minority risk given approval already secured.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 94% — UN approval is already secured, so the main remaining risk is a last-minute technical or political disruption. The General Assembly has authorized the video address, leaving Abbas’s office and UN meeting services to execute it before 3 October. Authorized leaders almost always deliver during high-level week; Abbas also used this format after the prior year’s approval. A cancellation, acute health event, or transmission failure would materially lower the chance, but none is indicated.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 82% — Whether Abbas actually delivers the already-authorized video in the remaining high-level debate days. UNGA already green-lit the video; debate typically runs through ~30 Sep, leaving a few days from 26 Sep. He has used video two years running and almost never skips the slot; in-person travel at age 91 is the main falsifier. Sudden incapacity blocking any address would change it, but that is low-probability given the approval.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 96% — Abbas's video address is already authorized and scheduled; only a last-minute cancellation or technical failure would stop it. The UNGA approved the video format for Abbas for the second consecutive year, removing the main procedural hurdle. Abbas has a strong record of delivering UNGA addresses, and the session runs through late September 2026. The only plausible disruption is a sudden cancellation or transmission failure, which is rare for pre-approved head-of-state remarks.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 93% — Abbas has already been approved for a video address; the only question is whether he actually delivers it. The UNGA has already voted to permit Abbas's video address for this session, mirroring the 2024 precedent where he did deliver one. Abbas is 90 years old but has consistently used this platform; the main risk is a sudden health event or a last-minute political decision to skip. A development that would change this: a sudden PLO/PA leadership crisis or Abbas's health deteriorating in the next week.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the UN General Assembly by video during the high-level debate.

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