Republicans lose the US Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas in 2026.
In the 2026 midterms, Republicans are defending or contesting several key Senate seats. Resolves as true if non-Republican candidates win every one of the seven specified state races.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 1%.
They broadly agree, 2 points between DeepSeek at 3% and Gemini at 1%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 25%, so the models are 24 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 3 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -24 pts
- Volume
- $271K
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 1% against 25%.
What each one said
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DeepSeekDeepSeek
This requires Democrats to win seven Senate races including deep-red Alaska, Kansas, and Texas in a single cycle.
- Democrats need to flip all seven, but Alaska, Kansas, and Texas have not elected a Democratic senator since 2014, 1932, and 1988 respectively.
- Maine and Iowa are plausible flips, Michigan and Ohio are tossups, but sweeping all seven requires a 2018-wave-plus environment in red states.
- The single development that would most change this is a late-breaking national scandal or economic collapse shifting every race simultaneously.
3% -
GrokxAI
A 72-hour anti-GOP wave flipping seven mostly-red seats at once.
- KS/IA/TX/AK are R+8 or safer; Collins and Murkowski have won worse environments than 2026.
- Only MI, OH special and ME are even competitive; joint probability of all seven is near zero given current polls.
- A simultaneous last-minute scandal collapsing every GOP nominee would be the only mover.
2% -
GeminiGoogle
A clean Democratic sweep across solid-red states like Kansas, Iowa, and Texas is virtually impossible in a single midterm.
- Winning all seven seats requires flipping ultra-safe Republican bastions in Kansas and Iowa that have resisted even major blue waves.
- The joint probability of seven distinct Senate races breaking entirely against the GOP compounds down to near zero.
- A massive national realignment or catastrophic GOP economic meltdown would be the only catalyst capable of such a rout.
1% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Requires Democrats to sweep deep-red Alaska, Kansas, Texas and Ohio plus swing states—implausible.
- Kansas and Texas are solidly Republican states where no Democrat has won a Senate race in decades.
- Even in strong Democratic wave years, Republicans retain seats in states like Kansas and Texas by double digits.
- All seven would need to flip simultaneously, an outcome far outside any plausible polling or historical precedent.
1% -
GPTOpenAI
A Democratic sweep would require upsets in several deeply Republican states within three days.
- Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas have durable GOP federal-election baselines, making four simultaneous flips extraordinarily rare.
- Democrats must also win Maine, Michigan, and Ohio on November 3; no runoff timing can rescue losses in the red-state quartet.
- I would raise this sharply only on credible late polling showing Democrats ahead across Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas.
1% -
QwenAlibaba
Texas and Kansas flipping simultaneously is essentially unprecedented, making all seven losses near-impossible.
- Texas (Cornyn) and Kansas (Marshall) have not elected a Democrat to the Senate in decades; even in 2018's blue wave neither was competitive.
- Maine (Collins) and Ohio (Husted) are the most plausible flips, but the joint probability of all seven states going non-Republican requires a wave far beyond any modern…
- A development that would raise this: a major Republican scandal causing a 10+ point national swing, but even then TX/KS remain red by double digits in partisan lean.
1%
6 of 6 models answered · 2 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively c
Question sourced from Polymarket on 31 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.