Republicans win Senate races in Iowa and Kansas, but lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas in the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolves based on the specific combination of Republican victories across seven key Senate elections held on November 3, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 4%.
They broadly agree, 7 points between GPT at 9% and Gemini at 2%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 14%, so the models are 10 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 3 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -10 pts
- Volume
- $748K
The models are slightly less confident than traders risking real money: 4% against 14%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It hinges on Democrats sweeping five very different races while Republicans hold both Iowa and Kansas.
- By November 3, nominees and turnout operations must deliver a near-clean Democratic sweep in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.
- Exact seven-state combinations are intrinsically rare; Alaska, Ohio and Texas each require Democrats to overcome strong Republican baselines.
- Late polling showing Democrats ahead in at least four of Alaska, Ohio and Texas would raise this sharply.
9% -
GrokxAI
Safe-R Iowa/Kansas plus five GOP losses including Texas and Maine is an extremely specific, low-base-rate map.
- IA and KS are near-locks for the GOP nominee three days out; the other five must all flip or stay D/I.
- TX, ME (Collins), AK (Murkowski/RCV), and OH special have strong GOP structural edges and recent polling leads.
- Only a late national wave plus multiple polling misses would produce exactly this set; that joint probability is tiny.
7% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This needs Republicans to lose five states where several are toss-ups or lean-D, while holding two safe reds.
- Iowa and Kansas are solidly red, so those two are near-certain Republican holds; the real question is the other five.
- Maine (Collins), Michigan, Ohio (special), and Texas are all rated toss-up or lean-D by Cook/Sabato as of late October 2026, so a GOP sweep of all five is very unlikely.
- Alaska's ranked-choice system plus a strong independent/Democratic field makes a Republican win there the least likely of the seven.
4% -
QwenAlibaba
Requires Democrats to simultaneously flip five states including three (AK, OH, TX) that lean Republican—a wave scenario within a wave.
- Alaska, Ohio, and Texas are all structurally Republican-leaning; even in 2018's blue wave, none of these three flipped, and Ohio/Texas voted R+8 and R+7 in 2024.
- The joint event requires a national environment strong enough to carry Maine and Michigan (plausible) while also cracking Alaska and Texas (each individually ~20-30% for…
- A development that would raise this: a late October shock (e.g., major scandal or economic crisis) that produces a uniform national swing of 8+ points—unprecedented in…
3% -
GeminiGoogle
Democrats flipping both Ohio and Texas while also taking Alaska and Maine requires an extraordinarily improbable nationwide blue wave.
- Texas and Ohio have solid structural Republican leanings that reliably withstand midterms, making a dual GOP loss there highly unlikely.
- Alaska's ranked-choice voting and Maine's Collins seat could be competitive, but sweeping all five non-GOP outcomes simultaneously has minimal joint probability.
- A massive economic collapse under Republican control before November 2026 is the only plausible catalyst for this specific map configuration.
2% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Requires GOP to win IA+KS but lose ALL of AK, ME, MI, OH, TX simultaneously—an implausible sweep against Republicans.
- Ohio and Texas are solidly red states; a GOP Senate loss in either would be a historic upset, let alone losing both plus AK/ME/MI.
- Base rate for this exact 7-state combination is extremely low since it requires near-uniform Democratic sweep in competitive-to-safe red states while only Iowa/Kansas…
- A true DEM wave year that flips OH/TX would likely also threaten IA/KS, making the specified split internally inconsistent with normal partisan swing patterns.
2%
6 of 6 models answered · 7 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively c
Question sourced from Polymarket on 31 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.